Strategy valuation falls below Bitcoin holdings, mNAV drops below 1 for the first time, drawing market attention

According to Odaily, Strategy's enterprise value has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its Market Value to Net Asset Value (mNAV) dropping below 1 for the first time, signaling a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.

Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, an 85% decline from its all-time high in November 2024. The company's enterprise value is around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (calculated at a Bitcoin price of around $60,000). This means the market currently values the entire company below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserves, allowing the company to raise capital at a premium and continuously accumulate Bitcoin. This model has been considered a cornerstone of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, with the mNAV now below 1, raising capital by issuing new shares could have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders.

Analysts point out that this change makes Strategy's valuation structure more akin to a "closed-end fund," resembling the discounted trading state of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult for discounts or premiums to correct quickly.

However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses a variety of capital tools, including debt financing, equity financing, cash flow from its software business, and capital structure restructuring measures. This theoretically allows the company a certain degree of flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)