"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: US-Iran War May Trigger 15% Oil Supply Gap, Far Exceeding Historical Levels, Oil Prices Face Upward Pressure

Odaily News: "1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on platform X, stating that historically, there has been a clear correlation between oil supply gaps and oil price increases: in 1973, a supply gap of about 7% drove oil prices up by approximately 300%; in 1979, a gap of about 5% drove an increase of about 150%; and in 1990, a gap of about 6% drove an increase of about 130%. The potential supply shock scale around the Strait of Hormuz is currently about 15%, significantly higher than historical cases. Most institutional models currently assume the shock duration is only "a few days to a few weeks," but almost no models anticipate the shock could last for months. In reality, once the market consensus on duration is broken, more long-position funds may be forced into the market, further pushing up oil prices.