U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Cool but Not Stall; Fed Rate Cuts May Be a Distant Hope Amid War Clouds

Odaily News As the surge in healthcare hiring seen in January is expected to return to its normal trend, U.S. job growth in February may have cooled. However, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

The Labor Department will release this highly anticipated employment report later, which is likely to paint a picture of a stabilizing labor market. Previously in 2025, the labor market stumbled due to what economists described as uncertainty stemming from former U.S. President Trump's comprehensive tariff policies. This will further solidify economists' view that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to resume interest rate cuts, especially as the threat of war in the Middle East exacerbates inflationary pressures. Economists predict that after adding 130,000 jobs in January, non-farm payrolls likely increased by only 59,000 last month. Forecasts range from a decrease of 9,000 to an increase of 125,000. Besides the pullback in the healthcare sector, a strike by 31,000 healthcare workers in California and Hawaii may also have weighed on the employment data. (Jin10)