Economist Timothy Peterson: Bitcoin Still Has Structural Upside Potential, 88% Probability of Rising by Year-End

Odaily News: Cryptocurrency economist Timothy Peterson's latest analysis points out that Bitcoin still has structural upside potential during the current bear market correction: 50% of the months over the past 24 months have recorded positive returns (according to CoinGlass data, positive return months in 2025 include January, April, May, June, July, and September). This indicator suggests a higher probability of a positive return inflection point occurring within any 24-month cycle.

Based on this, Peterson calculates: the probability of Bitcoin being above current levels in the next 10 months (i.e., until December 2026) is 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model indicates the market may be approaching a turning point rather than a continued decline. The current Bitcoin price is approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from the year's high, having erased most of the post-2024-2025 U.S. election gains. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to an "Extreme Fear" score of 9, and social media Bitcoin prediction enthusiasm has dried up (Santiment data), with sentiment trending neutral. (Cointelegraph)