Analyst: Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Likely to Reduce Probability of Rate Cuts in First Half, But Ruling Them Out Completely Remains Premature

Odaily News According to Investinglive analyst Justin Low, all eyes are on the non-farm payrolls data, with market participants awaiting the news to react. Currently, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 60 basis points this year, and have priced in the next 25-basis-point rate cut for the June meeting. The weak consumer picture presented yesterday naturally reinforced this expectation. If today's non-farm payrolls data is strong and the unemployment rate stabilizes, it suggests the Fed may keep rates unchanged for a longer period. In an optimistic scenario, this could significantly reduce the risk of rate cuts in the first half of the year. However, given the mixed signals from yesterday's U.S. consumer data, it is still too early to completely rule out the possibility of further rate cuts in June or July. (Jin10)