Bitwise báo cáo: RWA và thị trường dự đoán liên tục đạt mức cao mới, tiền mã hóa đang tạo đáy

Original from Bitwise

Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily – Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )

Editor’s Note: Crypto asset management firm Bitwise recently published its 2026 Q2 report.

The report states that the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index declined by 15.4%, with 8 of its 10 constituent assets posting negative returns. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $4.9 billion, marking the worst quarterly performance on record. On-chain transaction activity, trading volumes, and DeFi assets all decreased, while the correlation between cryptocurrencies and equities increased.

Of course, there were also bright spots in the market. Open interest in prediction markets reached an all-time high of $1.8 billion, with quarterly trading volume hitting $43 billion. The market capitalization of tokenized real-world assets reached $33 billion in Q2, up 45% since the start of the year. Crypto equities also performed well, with the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index rising 30.6%, largely driven by AI-related Bitcoin mining companies.

"Overall, the situation is tough. To make matters worse, this feeling of hardship is very real. While there's no statistical metric to measure 'vibes', the current sentiment in the crypto industry is among the worst I've seen in my eight years in the space. One reason: this marks our third consecutive quarter of negative returns, the longest losing streak since 2022 (which saw four consecutive quarters of negative returns)," wrote Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.

Below are some key data charts extracted from the report. Enjoy~

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Top 10 Key Events of Q2

In Q2, we saw Strategy, which once vowed to "never sell," sell Bitcoin. It started with small test sales before finally selling $218 million worth of Bitcoin at the end of June to pay dividends.

Affected by these sales, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in June, hitting its lowest price since 2024. This represents a 52% decline from its peak of $126,080 in October last year, marking a crypto winter that has lasted nine months. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $4.9 billion in Q2, the largest quarterly net outflow since their launch.

On the policy front, the much-anticipated "CLARITY Act" is not progressing smoothly in the Senate, stalling due to ethical and enforcement clause issues. The probability of its passage in 2026 on prediction markets has also dropped to 40%.

Here are the top 10 crypto events of Q2 as summarized by Bitwise:

Q3 Outlook

Q3 is a make-or-break quarter for the CLARITY Act. This market structure bill passed the Senate Banking Committee in Q2 but stalled due to ethical clauses related to the President's family's crypto interests. Prediction markets show its probability of passing in 2026 is near 40%, down from 75% in mid-May. We believe passage before the November midterm elections is unlikely. However, bills with such probabilities often do pass, so we think CLARITY still has a chance. If passed, we believe this could mark the bottom of the current bear market. If it fails, expect short-term volatility, followed by a gradual reduction in uncertainty as the industry continues to advance under a pro-crypto SEC and CFTC.

Stablecoin expansion after the GENIUS Act. July marks the final sprint before the GENIUS Act takes effect in January 2027, with regulators needing to finalize rules in Q3. We expect a flurry of major enterprises to announce stablecoin projects before the official launch, such as the recently unveiled OpenUSD, backed by Stripe, BlackRock, Visa, Coinbase, and around 140 other companies. Stablecoin supply has remained near $300 billion since last autumn, showing resilience amidst the crypto market sell-off. We believe the acceleration of stablecoin growth ahead of the January effective date will be a catalyst for public chains like Ethereum and Solana in Q3.

A Fed led by Kevin Warsh. The Federal Reserve has a new chair, Kevin Warsh, and the market knows little about his governing style. Q3 will offer the first signals: the July FOMC meeting and the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium in late August. So far, Warsh has held rates steady and hinted at no rush to cut. By the end of the quarter, we should have a clearer picture of the Fed's direction. It's too early to predict rate moves, but the Fed sets the tone for all risk assets, and any outcome will be quickly priced in by the market.

The quiet revaluation of DeFi. Over the past month, Bitcoin has fallen about 22%, while Bitwise's DeFi index has only dropped 4%. DeFi is typically far more volatile than Bitcoin, so this resilience is rare and has gone almost unnoticed. We believe DeFi is undergoing a quiet revaluation: tokenomics are improving, the gap between usage and token value is narrowing, real institutions are building on protocols like Morpho and Jupiter, and Aave alone has generated roughly $900 million in revenue over the past year. We expect DeFi's outperformance to continue in Q3, a shift that markets often lag in recognizing.

Significant Divergence Between Crypto Stocks and Crypto Assets

Halfway through 2026, crypto asset prices are down 36%. Among other major asset classes, only gold is down, by 7%, while the rest are up. This is one reason why this crypto winter feels particularly harsh – it's a lonely winter.

But notably, crypto stocks have returned 23% in the first half of the year, outperforming all major asset classes except emerging market stocks. In fact, the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which tracks the 30 largest public crypto-economy companies, has more than doubled the return of US stocks.

This shows that even in a bear market, investment opportunities in the crypto space continue to emerge. Bitcoin miners benefit from tailwinds related to AI; stablecoin issuers and tokenization platforms ride the wave of Wall Street adoption; the connection between traditional finance and the crypto world is tightening. While I expect crypto assets to rebound in the second half of the year, the first half has reinforced an important realization: crypto is not a monolith but a diverse, dynamic field that deserves a broader perspective.

Performance of crypto vs. major asset classes is as follows:

Data from Bloomberg. Data as of June 30, 2026

Crypto Apps Generate Substantial Revenue

Over the past 12 months, the top 10 crypto apps generated a combined revenue of $5.9 billion. The top three (PancakeSwap, Hyperliquid, and Aave) each generated close to $1 billion. These are real, operating businesses earning fees from trading, lending, and staking – bear market or not.

Top 10 Crypto Apps by Revenue, as shown below:

Data from Token Terminal, covering January 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026

(1) Revenue consists of total fees paid by users; (2) Hyperliquid revenue excludes HyperEVM fees

The Bull Market for Real-World Assets (RWA)

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent himself said a few weeks ago: "Digital assets, stablecoins, tokenization, and new payment systems will help shape the future of money."

In a sense, the future he describes is already here. Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWA) reached a record $33 billion in Q2, growing 12% for the quarter and 45% year-to-date. Growth in tokenized US Treasuries, corporate credit, equities, and venture capital has been particularly rapid.

When I look at this chart, I see the world's largest asset managers moving assets onto the blockchain at full speed. It's worth paying attention to.

Size of Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWA), as shown below:

Data from RWA.xyz, covering January 1, 2020 to June 30, 2026

Note: The chart above omits stablecoin issuers like Circle and Tether

Prediction Markets Continue Expanding

Open interest in prediction markets hit an all-time high of $1.8 billion in Q2, with sports becoming the largest category by weight. Quarterly trading volume also set a record at $43 billion.

Apps like Polymarket demonstrate the stealth adoption of crypto by retail users: millions of people are using crypto infrastructure to trade outcomes on real-world events, but most don't know or care that crypto provides the underlying technology.

With the US midterm elections approaching, trading volume and open interest in prediction markets are likely to hit new highs multiple times this year. After all, politics was the category that brought prediction markets into the mainstream in 2024, and the market size has tripled since then.

Prediction Market Open Interest, as shown below:

Data from Blockworks Research, covering January 1, 2023 to June 30, 2026

Low Correlation of Crypto Stocks with Major Assets

Returning to crypto stocks, one of the most interesting charts is the 90-day rolling correlation of the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index with other major asset classes. It's particularly striking that, compared to US stocks, this index has a lower correlation with almost every other category: developed market stocks, emerging market stocks, US REITs, US bonds, and gold. (The only exception is commodities, where both have negative correlations.)

In other words: In the first half of 2026, crypto stocks generated more than double the returns of US stocks while having lower correlations with almost every other asset in a portfolio. This combination of return and diversification is enough to excite any investor.

Correlations (90-day rolling) of certain assets and asset classes, as shown below:

Data from Bloomberg, as of June 30, 2026

Conclusion

As you flip through these pages, look closely at the charts. Almost all metrics – prices, on-chain activity, volumes – are far from their all-time highs. This is unsurprising given that prices have fallen over 50% from their peak in October last year.

But if you compare the same data cyclically to the last bear market bottom in 2022, the picture is vastly different. Ethereum transaction activity is up roughly 13x compared to Q2 2022. DeFi Total Value Locked has risen over 60%. Stablecoin size has roughly doubled. It seems only prices haven't kept pace.

I believe this accurately reflects where we truly are: the market is pricing an industry, at bear market prices, that is roughly double the size of the last cycle's bottom – an industry with deeper liquidity, stronger fundamentals, and Wall Street finally on-chain.

Such a foundation cannot stop winter, but it determines what will grow in spring.

That's my take on this quarter. Of course, none of these 50-plus charts can answer the question we get asked most often: "Have crypto prices bottomed?" But they do point to the resilient fundamentals of the crypto space – a space where usage, revenue, and adoption continue to grow even in a bear market.

For me, that's exactly what makes this field so interesting – and the foundation upon which the next cycle is built.