对话宏观分析师：AI吸干美股全部流动性，比特币4万才是底部

Curated & Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow

Guest: Luke Groman, Founder of FFT LC, Institutional Macro Strategist

Podcast Source: Coin Stories

Original Title: The $40K Bitcoin Bottom Coming?

Air Date: June 5, 2026

Key Takeaways

U.S. long-term Treasury futures have depreciated 90% against gold over the past 10 years, yet GDP continues to grow – suggesting that 90% isn't enough. This is the wake-up call from Luke Groman, founder of FFT LC and a macro strategist with 30 years of experience on Wall Street, directed at all investors.

In this conversation, he presents a stark yet coherent analytical framework: On the surface, the S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs, but this is solely driven by seven AI stocks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, acting as "the last smoke alarm for liquidity," is sounding a warning.

If you want to know why Groman sold off most of his Bitcoin near the top but hasn't bought back yet, why he believes stocks will continue to rise in dollar terms but will keep falling when priced in gold and Bitcoin, and why technical indicators point to a potential Bitcoin retracement to the $40,000 range, this podcast is worth your time.

Highlights & Insights

Why Hasn't Luke Groman Bought Back Bitcoin Yet?

• "I bought a small amount, but basically the answer is no. I haven't really bought my position back. I didn't sell all of it, but I sold most of it."
• "I'm watching. Bitcoin has been going through a pretty rough patch recently."

The Divergence Mystery: Stock Markets Hit New Highs While Bitcoin Liquidity Dries Up

• "Bitcoin is the smoke alarm for liquidity, probably the last one that's still working, and it's telling us something not so good."
• "AI is sucking all the oxygen out of the room, sucking up all the liquidity. I think that's happening to Bitcoin too."

The Illusion of Value: How Accounting Tricks Inflate AI Valuations

• "The faster you build and the less cash flow you have, the higher and faster your reported earnings grow – but you'll be extremely short on cash."
• "Once construction slows down and revenue growth starts to decelerate, the lagging effect of amortization will catch up, and then the situation reverses."

Rising in Dollar Terms, Falling in Gold and Bitcoin Terms

• "My base case is: stocks go up a lot in dollar terms, but they go down a lot in gold and Bitcoin terms."
• "Over the past 10 years, U.S. long-term Treasury futures have fallen 90% against gold, and GDP has still grown – that tells you 90% isn't enough."

China's Dominance Over Rare Earths

• "Tens of trillions of dollars of U.S. stocks – especially tech stocks, but not limited to them – all rest upon rare earths, which from a commodity perspective is a minuscule market."
• "China dominates this field. They achieved this for two reasons: First, they worked at it for 30 years; second, they have more engineers than anyone else and face less environmental regulation."
• "The U.S. government is now explicitly stepping into this arena. Historically, when the government meddles with companies, those companies rarely turn out to be good holdings."

The Strait of Hormuz: America's 'Suez Moment'

• "My base case is, it's like a guy jumping off a 100-story building, and as he passes the 40th floor, he says, 'Hey, this feels like flying, it's great.' It's not the fall that kills you; it's the sudden stop."
• "When you face this level of complacency, this level of inventory depletion... why isn't it open yet? That's the thing that keeps surprising us 'tail-end' folks."

Why Would Iran Keep the Strait of Hormuz Closed?

• "Rationing demand through price means a recession. That's what it means. And along with it comes inflation – a stagflationary recession."
• "If I were in Iran's shoes – I've been bombed, I've held on this long, I prepared 40 years for this day, I dug all those tunnels... they destroyed far less than they think."

Surge in 'Non-Monetary' Gold Exports from the U.S. to China

• "In five of the last six months, non-monetary gold has been the largest single U.S. export item."
• "There were many pro-Trump statements saying, 'Look how much Trump has reduced the trade deficit!' The trade deficit is indeed shrinking, and the biggest marginal change is – gold exports."

Building a 'No Ticky, No Washy' Proof-of-Work System

• "The world is moving towards a 'no ticky, no washy' system. What does that mean? It means – the U.S. wants rare earths, bring gold, or the next shipment won't arrive; China wants oil, bring gold, or the next shipment won't arrive."
• "Nobody trusts anyone anymore. And in that kind of world, where do you go? You go to ledgers you can't trust – you need trustless ways to settle."

When the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Hits 130%: What Happened in 58 Out of 58 Cases

• "In 150 years, 58 countries have hit a debt-to-GDP ratio of 130%. As of today, 58 out of 58 defaulted – primarily through a significant period of inflation."
• "If AI doesn't destroy jobs, then it isn't the greatest thing since the internet and doesn't deserve these valuations. If it is the greatest thing and valuations are justified, then white-collar employment is about to be slaughtered – and in the U.S., that employment contributes half of the tax revenue."

Do Technical Indicators Point to a $40,000 Bitcoin Bottom?

• "If you actually buy back in the $40,000 to $50,000 range, you become an epic legend – because you sold near the top."
• "They predict a bottom around Q3, Q4 maybe in the $40,000 range. I genuinely think we might see that price."

Why Hasn't Luke Groman Bought Back Bitcoin Yet?

Host Natalie Brunell: Let's start with the Bitcoin question everyone is asking: Have you started buying back in, or are you waiting for it to fall further? It hasn't been performing well recently.

Luke Groman:

It's been a rough few days. I bought a tiny bit to test the waters, but basically the answer is: I haven't really re-entered the market. I didn't sell my entire position, but I sold most of it. Bitcoin's recent trajectory – especially over the last three to four days – has been through a pretty tough period.

The Divergence Mystery: Stock Markets Hit New Highs While Bitcoin Liquidity Dries Up

Host Natalie Brunell: Can you break down why this is happening? We see the stock market with such strong momentum, constantly hitting new all-time highs. It reminds me of the stock market in 2021 – hitting new highs every other day. But back then, Bitcoin was performing very well too, and we were in a bull market. So what's behind this divergence now?

Luke Groman:

I'm not sure, but my working assumption is this: If you look at the underlying foundation of this market rally, it's not healthy. Yes, the indices are at new highs, time and again, but it's basically just seven stocks. I saw a chart yesterday: Excluding AI-related names, the S&P 500 is actually slightly lower than before the Iran war started. I saw another chart: if you compare the U.S. MSCI with the MSCI Emerging Markets ex-U.S., and then remove TSMC, Samsung, and another large AI or memory-related company from the EM index – what looks like Emerging Markets crushing the U.S. actually becomes them getting crushed once you remove those three or four AI-related names. This is the breadth problem. We've seen a lot of discussion about market breadth, and I think the breadth under the surface of the current headline index levels is terrible. Ultimately, what's happening is that AI is sucking all the oxygen out of the room, sucking up all the liquidity, concentrating it all in one sector. I think this is happening to Bitcoin too; it's also a victim of this situation. I believe Bitcoin is the smoke alarm for liquidity, probably the last one that's still working, and it's telling us something not so good. At the same time, oil is also absorbing liquidity. Or perhaps we should say the Trump administration, the U.S., is doing everything it can to try and push oil prices down, mainly through jawboning and releases from Western strategic petroleum reserves. But oil prices have still gone up. Since the war started, even at these relatively lower levels, they've risen about 50%. So, I think oil is absorbing liquidity, commodities are absorbing liquidity, and AI is absorbing liquidity. From a liquidity perspective, anything that isn't one of these three, or directly related to them, isn't performing well – mostly flat or down.

The Illusion of Value: How Accounting Tricks Inflate AI Valuations

Host Natalie Brunell: Regarding AI companies, what's interesting is that some call it a bubble, others say it's not. Their P/E ratios aren't that high, completely unlike the dot-com bubble era. They believe there's still a lot of room to run. But I remember you writing about an accounting issue – something about them front-loading all the demand, making all the investments now, but it will take years before they generate real revenue. Those data centers are built and generating actual growth years later – but all the investment is happening now.

Luke Groman:

The problem isn't necessarily that real growth isn't happening; it's more to do with the accounting methods. The way accounting works here is that you front-load the investment costs, front-load the revenue recognition, while the expenses get amortized over a longer period. The impact of this accounting on reported earnings is: The faster you build and the less cash flow you have, the higher and faster your reported earnings grow. But you'll be extremely short on cash, because you're shelling out money constantly, even if your book earnings are high.

You can expect to see earnings estimates get revised upwards, stock prices rise in response. You can also expect to see them move from financing with cash, to needing to borrow, to needing to borrow more – and we are indeed seeing all of that happen. Where it gets really tricky is when this construction cycle slows down for whatever reason – whether it's because we can't get the physical materials, or chip supplies are interrupted, or permits for data centers get blocked in various locations – whatever the reason, once construction slows down, your revenue growth starts to decelerate, and the lagging effect of amortization begins to catch up, and then the situation reverses. Earnings will decelerate significantly or even start declining, but a lot of that decline will be non-cash, and you'll actually see cash flow improve.

Then the question becomes: How will the market treat this situation? Will it think "earnings are slowing but cash flow is healthy now"? On one hand, these stocks aren't that expensive on a valuation basis, which suggests it doesn't have to be a disaster. On the other hand, they have massive momentum and are sucking up all the liquidity. So if earnings start to decelerate, why would I hold this instead of anything else that previously had its liquidity sucked away? Will capital start to leave this space for elsewhere? My guess is the latter – at that point, they would be in a downturn for a while.

But this also involves a difficult question: When does that deceleration happen? What triggers it? There are many different factors that could cause it. And I think there's another complicating factor now that didn't exist in 1999: In '99, we still had a free market. You could say the government wasn't very involved in the market; it was "peak America". Now the government is deeply involved. Back then, we were the sole superpower; now we are not – we are in a new great power competition. So, the internet bubble burst under its own weight. Today, I also think this rally will eventually collapse or reverse under its own weight at some point, but it won't be allowed to burst on its own, because AI has been identified as a key battleground in the great power competition. That's the tricky part – the government will likely step in to support it, to do what they think is necessary to keep this construction boom going. And that means it will continue to suck the oxygen away from everything else, creating more problems. A lot of things remind me of 1999 to 2000, but there are also some things I think are quite different.

Rising in Dollar Terms, Falling in Gold and Bitcoin Terms

Host Natalie Brunell: Actually, a lot of people are saying the stock market is about to crash, that we're near the top. But it sounds like this rally could continue for quite a while. I know you're generally cautious on the stock market, and you've been very focused on gold and infrastructure. Do you think the prices of gold and Bitcoin will be suppressed? For Bitcoiners, I remember you mentioned the price might range between $58,000 and $72,000 for a considerable time.

Luke Groman:

That comment was somewhat half-joking, but I do see some truth in it. When you look at some of the things happening now, it seems the U.S. is trying to push for decoupling from China. Therefore, certain things are politically necessary: you need the Yen to weaken, the Won to weaken, to help shift production capacity out of China; you need the Dollar to weaken to promote re-shoring manufacturing. All of these things, in essence, should be very bullish for gold and Bitcoin. However, there are domestic forces in the U.S. that don't want to see this, because a rise in gold and Bitcoin sends a signal to the world: "You guys are just printing money recklessly." This creates problems in funding the Treasury bond market, especially with what we've seen in the 10-year yield since this war started.

I think the way they will achieve it is – expanding the derivatives market, similar to what was done historically with gold. In the long run, I don't think they can do this to Bitcoin; but in the short term, as long as they can expand derivatives, they can