Tại sao giá hợp đồng Pre-IPO SpaceX giữa các sàn giao dịch lại chênh lệch lớn đến vậy?

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

SpaceX's trillion-dollar mega IPO is finally coming.

You open the exchange, eager to position yourself before the IPO, but suddenly notice… Binance's SPCX is trading at 169 USDT, OKX's SPCX at 155 USDT, and Hyperliquid's SPCX at 154 USDC. The pre-market contract prices across the three platforms are all different, with a particularly large gap between Binance and the other two. Why is this happening?

Simply put, the reason for this situation is partly due to each platform having its own independent price discovery mechanism, but more critically, it's because the equity data and valuation conversion methods adopted by each platform are not entirely the same.

First, it's important to clarify that the SPCX listed on Binance, OKX, Bitget, and Hyperliquid are not actual SpaceX stocks, but rather derivatives designed around the future IPO price. These products will ultimately be settled based on SpaceX's market cap and share count post-IPO. Therefore, their prices essentially reflect the market's expectations for SpaceX's final valuation. Since SpaceX is not yet listed, there is no definitive anchoring standard for these expected prices. This uncertainty is the source of the current price arbitrage game.

Differences in Share Count Data Across Three Major Exchanges

Let's look back at the historical announcements from Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid regarding their SpaceX pre-market contract listings.

OKX listed the SPACEX pre-market contract on May 7th, with an initial estimated share count of 1 billion shares. Consequently, the SPACEX contract price was initially above 2000 USDT; Then, on June 2nd, OKX adjusted the share count to 12.52 billion shares based on SpaceX's S-1 filing (Odaily Planet Daily note: This adjustment process is called Rebase, and the term will be used hereafter), and renamed the SPACEX pre-market contract to SPCX pre-market contract. Correspondingly, the SPCX contract price was "adjusted" to the 150-200 USDT range.

Hyperliquid listed the SPCX pre-market contract on May 17th via the HIP-3 market Trade.xyz. In terms of share count, Trade.xyz initially disclosed using approximately 11.87 billion shares inferred from private market trading data. However, the community discovered that Trade.xyz subsequently deleted this information from its documentation.

Binance launched SPCX pre-market contract trading on May 21st, also with an initial share count of 11.87 billion shares; On the evening of June 8th, Binance announced it would perform a Rebase on SPCX, adjusting the share count directly to 13.08 billion shares as disclosed in the latest IPO plan (an increase of 556 million newly issued shares compared to the 12.52 billion in the S-1). The Rebase is scheduled to execute at 16:30 Beijing time tomorrow.

To summarize, the current situation is now very clear:

• OKX currently uses a share count of 12.52 billion shares from the S-1 filing; whether it will undergo another Rebase remains uncertain for now.
• Hyperliquid (Trade.xyz) initially disclosed using 11.87 billion shares, but since the relevant statement has been removed, the market estimates the likelihood of a subsequent Rebase is extremely low, potentially defaulting to tracking the actual share count.
• Binance currently uses a share count of 11.87 billion shares, but will Rebase to 13.08 billion shares tomorrow.

Real Price Comparison Across Three Platforms

With the share count data above, we can calculate the actual "real price" reflected by the SPCX pre-market contracts on the three platforms based on real-time prices.

As of 17:00 Beijing time, the real-time quotes for the SPCX pre-market contract on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid were 169.62 USDT, 155.35 USDT, and 154.62 USDC, respectively.

Using this static data and the share count data mentioned above, we can derive the following calculation results:

• Binance currently quotes 169.62 USDT; after the Rebase tomorrow, it will adjust to 154.2 USDT.
• OKX currently quotes 155.35 USDT; if another Rebase occurs (adjusting to 13.08 billion shares), the corresponding price would be 148.7 USDT.
• Hyperliquid currently quotes 154.62 USDC; if a Rebase occurs, the corresponding price would be 140.3 USDC.

At first glance, doesn't that mean Hyperliquid has the cheapest price? Not so fast! The current situation is that the market expects that OKX and Hyperliquid are unlikely to Rebase again before SpaceX completes its IPO.

For OKX, the reason is that it has already performed one Rebase, and its official documentation on the pre-market contract only mentions "Rebasing based on the S-1 share count data," a step that has now been completed.

For Hyperliquid, you can refer to the analysis provided by arbitrage expert "Silicon Bird ｜ Ray" (X: @limxn6), who considers the possibility of a subsequent Rebase to be extremely low.

Therefore, although the prices on OKX and Hyperliquid after a theoretical Rebase seem attractive, this price scenario is highly unlikely to materialize.

A more realistic price comparison should be: Binance (154.2 USDT) < Hyperliquid (154.62 USDC) < OKX (155.35 USDT).

Two conclusions can be drawn here. First, there is almost no arbitrage opportunity between OKX/Hyperliquid and Binance (the arbitrage window was as high as 10% last night after Binance announced the Rebase). Second, the premium on OKX and Hyperliquid can be attributed to the market pricing in the very slim possibility of a Rebase, with OKX's higher premium suggesting a relatively higher probability of a Rebase compared to Hyperliquid.

Measuring the Same Thing with Different Rulers

With SpaceX's IPO drawing closer and market rules becoming clearer, the optimal arbitrage window may have passed; However, for ordinary investors, this price game revolving around SPCX provides an excellent sample for observing the operational logic of the pre-market market.

Many are accustomed to interpreting pre-market contract prices directly as "future stock prices." But after this analysis, it's not hard to see that pre-market trading involves more than just a simple number. Behind the price lies not only the market's judgment of the company's future valuation but also the exchange's product design, choice of share count metrics, and participants' expectations of rule changes.

In other words, when you see different SPCX quotes on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid, they don't necessarily signify a huge divergence in market views on SpaceX; rather, it's more likely a case of measuring the same target with different rulers.