BitMart研究院每周热点：全球流动性聚焦AI主线，加密市场蓄力观望

I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1.1 Easing Middle East Tensions: Tail Risks Temporarily Abate

Last week, the market was highly concerned about the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. President Trump even canceled his attendance at his child's wedding, the Pentagon's Pizza Meter surged abnormally, and the market entered a pricing phase of "imminent war." Oil prices spiked, and global risk assets came under significant pressure. However, the situation quickly showed signs of de-escalation, with both sides eventually reaching a preliminary framework agreement and agreeing to extend the negotiation window for approximately 60 days, temporarily removing the tail risk of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East.

As risk sentiment recovered, US stocks regained strength, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hitting new cycle highs. From the current perspective, geopolitical tensions are gradually shifting from "maximum pressure" to "prolonged tug-of-war." The market generally believes that large-scale military operations are now a low-probability event, and future negotiations will likely focus on the Strait of Hormuz, security arrangements, and sanctions. Barring any new unexpected incidents, the impact of geopolitics on risk assets is expected to diminish gradually.

1.2 AI Tech Stocks: Bubble in Mid-to-Late Stage, but Short-Term Trend Remains Strong

Currently, global risk assets are still driven by the AI narrative. US, Japanese, and South Korean stock markets continue to strengthen, particularly South Korea's market, which has maintained significant gains driven by the AI supply chain, including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Internal market discussions regarding the AI bubble phase are also heating up.

Some quantitative institutions, evaluating multiple indicators from the Nasdaq bubble period in 2000, believe that AI tech stocks have now entered the mid-to-late stage of a bubble. Models suggest that over the next three months, AI tech stocks may still maintain upward momentum with low drawdowns, offering considerable average potential returns. However, the risk-reward ratio over the next 1-3 years is beginning to deteriorate significantly, with the probability of high volatility and deep corrections rising.

However, the key difference from the 2000 internet bubble is that the AI infrastructure itself has not yet shown obvious overcapacity. Segments like computing power, storage, bandwidth, and energy are still in a continuous expansion phase. Therefore, the fundamental health of the industry remains relatively strong, with the bubble more concentrated in secondary market valuations. The current market has already priced in several years of future earnings expectations, with valuations for many AI leaders reflecting growth potential for the next 2-5 years. If subsequent earnings fail to meet expectations or capital expenditure pressures exceed cash flow capabilities, market volatility could increase significantly.

1.3 SpaceX IPO and Q4 AI Bubble Stress Test

The market is now focusing on several potential key risk nodes, including the continued expansion of capital expenditure by tech giants, future IPOs of high-valuation AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, and the massive upcoming IPO of SpaceX, expected to proceed in June.

SpaceX could become one of the largest IPOs in history, with market estimates suggesting a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion and a fundraising size of approximately $75 billion. While its long-term narratives like space data centers and Mars colonization offer immense potential, the company is still in a state of continuous losses, and xAI is burning through cash rapidly. Therefore, the market is essentially valuing SpaceX based on a "deep out-of-the-money call option" logic rather than traditional cash flow models.

If SpaceX's listing creates a significant liquidity suction effect, it could prematurely trigger a correction phase for AI tech stocks. The market generally believes that starting from late Q3, the risk-reward ratio for AI tech stocks will worsen significantly, potentially entering a period of high volatility and sharp swings in Q4. However, given the current high concentration of global capital in the AI narrative, the AI supply chain remains the strongest consensus for capital allocation in the short term.

1.4 Potential Shift in Fed Framework: Volatility Could Rise Again

Recent content from Kevin Warsh's testimony has also drawn market attention. His statements indicate significant differences from aspects of the Federal Reserve framework during the Powell era, including opposition to the traditional QE/QT framework, a de-emphasis on forward guidance, and a greater emphasis on the market's own punishment and reward mechanisms.

The market fears that if the Fed gradually weakens its active smoothing of market volatility, the VIX (Volatility Index), which has been suppressed in recent years, could rebound. Furthermore, the market is beginning to monitor whether the US might adjust its inflation statistical framework in the future. If real inflation rises again while the Fed reacts slowly, the bond market might start pricing in the "Fed falling behind the inflation curve" risk.

Overall, market expectations for reduced Fed policy transparency and renewed volatility amplification are strengthening.

II. Crypto Market

2.1 BTC Consolidates Weakly, Market Capital Concentrated on AI Assets

Despite the easing of geopolitical risks driving a rebound in global risk assets, the overall performance of the Crypto market has been significantly weaker than that of AI tech stocks. The current market capital flow remains concentrated on the AI supply chain, with no clear signs of "AI profit spillover into Crypto."

The changing trends are also evident from the recent strategic layouts of major exchanges. Areas such as Prediction Markets, US stock contracts, and AI-related assets are becoming new key focuses, while the narrative heat around traditional altcoins continues to decline. In this cycle, the capital relationship between Crypto and AI differs markedly from previous bull runs, and no significant liquidity spillover effect has formed in the market. Consequently, market sentiment towards small-to-mid-cap altcoins remains generally cautious.

2.2 ETF and Derivatives Data: Market Sentiment Turns Bearish Again

ETF capital flows continue to weaken. This week, BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.18 billion, accompanied by a simultaneous decline in overall trading volume, indicating a decrease in institutional risk appetite.

Regarding on-chain and derivatives data, BTC Open Interest declined in tandem with the price drop. Funding rates turned positive again after being significantly negative previously, suggesting some short positions are being covered. However, spot CVD remains weak, and the recovery of active buying pressure is limited.

Options market sentiment has turned bearish again. Deribit Skew has risen back to around 16%, with the Put option premium returning to relatively extreme levels, indicating a marked increase in market demand for hedging. Overall, the Crypto market currently lacks new incremental capital drivers.

2.3 MicroStrategy Continues Accumulation, ETH Retains Tech Narrative

This week, MicroStrategy is suspected to have increased its holdings by approximately 30,000 BTC, bringing its total holdings to nearly 840,000 BTC. Compared to previous periods, its recent buying intensity has significantly increased. Some market views suggest that, in essence, it is consistently betting on the long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit.

Although ETH's price performance has been weaker than BTC recently, it still retains some attributes of a "tech asset," including the potential for integration between its on-chain ecosystem and AI and smart contract innovation. Therefore, some institutional capital continues to allocate to it. For example, BMNR increased its holdings by approximately 70,000 ETH this week.

In contrast, BTC is currently positioned more as a macro asset, while ETH maintains part of its tech growth narrative.

2.4 Long-Term Perspective: After the AI Bubble Deflates, Crypto May See Real Opportunity

The most prominent feature of the current market remains the "AI dominance." Whether it's traditional stocks, altcoins, or most other risk assets, they are all experiencing continuous liquidity absorption by the AI sector.

Some market participants believe that the truly opportune time for large-scale allocation to Crypto might be after AI tech stocks undergo a systematic "valuation correction." If the AI bubble experiences a phase of clearing, BTC could concurrently see a significant pullback. This scenario, paradoxically, might form an important bottom region for a new Crypto cycle.

Overall, we remain in a phase where AI dominates global liquidity, and the Crypto market currently lacks an independent primary upward narrative.

This article represents market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.