比特币反弹遇阻回落：78200美元变阻力，71400美元成关键支撑

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin remains structurally resilient, but weakening spot demand, slowing ETF inflows, and increasingly crowded long positions suggest that upward momentum is gradually cooling beneath the surface.

Summary

• Bitcoin has regained the True Market Mean of $78,300, but failed to hold above it. Based on historical cycles, weeks to months of consolidation near this level are needed to confirm a credible bull market transition.
• The 30-day SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio surged from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating demand was insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking. A sustained level above 2 is required to signal a genuine recovery in buying pressure.
• The 30-day cost basis of $78,200 has flipped from support to overhead resistance, while the cost basis of the accumulation cohort from February to April at $71,400 now serves as the most immediate support level in this pullback.
• On-chain spot market internals have weakened in recent weeks, with the total spot CVD remaining predominantly negative and Coinbase activity persistently lagging. This suggests that despite occasional bursts of speculative demand from overseas, US institutional spot participation remains weak.
• CME futures open interest has continued to recover alongside the price, indicating improving institutional participation in the derivatives market, although spot demand remains indecisive near the upper end of the current range.
• The momentum of US spot ETF accumulation has recently begun to slow. The 30-day change in ETF holdings has notably flattened after strong buying in April and early May, suggesting that US institutional spot demand has become less aggressive near the upper end of the current price range.
• Implied volatility has begun to rebuild from low levels, concentrated at the front end, while longer-term expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, widening the volatility risk premium and making protection relatively cheap.
• Options positioning remains defensive. Skew indicates a resurgence in demand for downside protection, while a short gamma region near $75,000 leaves spot vulnerable to amplified hedging flows and sharper price swings.

Macro Insights

The macro backdrop has tightened notably, with markets facing a stronger US dollar, higher yields, and renewed inflationary pressure from energy markets. The DXY has risen to six-week highs, the US 10-year yield has climbed above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield is heading towards multi-year highs, reflecting a sharp repricing of interest rate expectations. Markets are now assigning a higher probability to a Fed rate hike before year-end, reversing earlier expectations for easing.

Commodities are reinforcing the tighter macro shock. Oil remains elevated due to Middle East supply risks, keeping inflation expectations active and limiting room for rate cuts. Gold is struggling to extend its gains amid rising real yields and a stronger dollar, suggesting that safe-haven flows are being challenged by tighter financial conditions.

For digital assets, the landscape remains constructive but more fragile. Bitcoin's resilience in the face of higher yields and a stronger dollar indicates that underlying demand still exists, but the macro tailwind is no longer unequivocally positive. Sustained upside may require oil to stabilize, yields to retreat, and the DXY to lose momentum, thereby allowing liquidity conditions to ease and risk appetite to expand again.

On-Chain Insights

Testing the Bull-Bear Line

The recent rally to $82,000 marked a significant reclaim of the True Market Mean of $78,300. This price model tracks the average acquisition cost of actively traded Bitcoin supply and has historically served as the dividing line between bear and bull markets. Reclaiming this level is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a structural shift. Conventionally, a pre-bull phase requires sustained consolidation near this model for weeks to months to confirm a credible trend change. A single decisive break above the True Market Mean, while constructive, has not yet met this requirement.

Therefore, any deeper pullback from current levels would redefine the recent rally as a local high within a continuing bear market. This structure has appeared multiple times in previous cycles and remains a higher probability outcome until price shows sustained follow-through.

Profit-Taking Outpacing Demand

Looking closer at the internal mechanics of the recent rally, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio provides a precise measure of market health. This metric tracks the ratio of the dollar value of realized profits to realized losses on-chain, with values above 1 indicating dominance of profit-taking and below 1 reflecting dominance of loss realization.

The 30-day SMA of this metric surged from its February low of 0.4 to 1.8, reflecting a natural shift in spending behavior following the price recovery. However, the market's inability to maintain momentum against this rising wave of profit-taking suggests that demand has not yet recovered sufficiently to absorb sellers exiting during the bounce.

A decisive and sustained stabilization of the 30-day (or 90-day) SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio above 2 for multiple weeks would constitute a more meaningful signal of genuine buyer conviction and the market's capacity to absorb distribution pressure without rolling over.

Cost Basis Levels Define a New Range

With the price falling back below the True Market Mean, the realized price metrics segmented by holding period provide a granular framework for mapping the most immediate support and resistance levels. This model tracks the average purchase price of coins by holding period, directly mapping the behavioral anchors of different investor groups onto the price chart. The cost basis of the most recent 30-day accumulation wave (driving the rally momentum) is approximately $78,200. With the price now below this level, this cohort has moved into unrealized losses, transforming what was a support floor into an overhead supply zone, adding extra selling pressure on any rally attempts.

Below spot, the cost basis of investors who accumulated during the February-April consolidation period (now classified as 1-3 month holders) is around $71,400. As the profit margins of this group shrink and they face increasing incentives to protect gains before conditions deteriorate further, this represents the most likely near-term support level.

Off-Chain Insights

Spot Selling Pressure Returns

The latest spot flow data continues to show weak aggregate demand beneath the surface, with the all-exchange spot CVD bias remaining negative during the recent pullback towards the $77,000 highs. This indicates that selling pressure continues to outweigh aggressive spot buying across major venues.

Recently, Binance spot flows have recovered modestly from deeply negative levels, while Coinbase activity remains relatively subdued. This divergence suggests stronger speculative participation from overseas, while US institutional spot demand lacks conviction near current price levels.

Despite Bitcoin's relative structural resilience, the latest spot positioning data indicates that broad-based spot accumulation has not yet fully re-emerged.

CME Recovers While ETF Demand Slows

CME futures open interest has continued its steady ascent alongside Bitcoin's recovery to the low $80,000s, suggesting institutional traders are rebuilding exposure after the February sell-off. The recovery in CME activity indicates that institutional participation in the derivatives market is growing, even as macro conditions remain restrictive.

Meanwhile, the momentum of US spot ETF accumulation has begun to slow. The 30-day change in ETF holdings has notably flattened after strong buying in April and early May, suggesting that the US institutional cohort's spot demand has become less aggressive near current price levels.

The result is a market increasingly driven by futures positioning rather than strong spot accumulation. The recent upside continues to attract leveraged participation, but the pace of fresh spot buying has slowed as Bitcoin approaches the upper end of its current range.

Weak Spot, Crowded Longs

The latest order flow data reveals that the decline beneath the surface is primarily spot-driven. Futures open interest saw only a modest pullback and remains elevated relative to the last time Bitcoin traded in this range, while spot CVD is significantly weaker than futures CVD. This suggests that the recent downturn is driven more by persistent spot selling than by aggressive short positioning.

The funding rate reinforces this picture. Instead of resetting alongside the price pullback, the funding rate has remained positive and has recently started to strengthen again, indicating that leveraged longs continue to pay premiums to maintain their exposure amidst the weakness.

Collectively, the market maintains elevated long positioning even as spot demand weakens, a pattern typically resolved through either spot buying or a broader derivatives reset.

Implied Volatility Rebuilding from Lows

Starting with implied volatility, the market is beginning to price in volatility again, but from a low base.

Bitcoin's implied volatility across tenors has increased compared to last week, with the front end rising from 32% to 36%. The 6-month tenor remains relatively stable around 42%, indicating that longer-term expectations have changed little despite recent spot price action.

The chart shows the front end reacting visibly to spot moving within a range, while the back end remains anchored. This suggests traders are paying slightly higher premiums for short-term options but have not yet priced in a broader shift in volatility.

With implied volatility still near the lower end of its recent range, hedging costs remain relatively cheap, especially for short-term event risk.

The current structure reflects a moderate rebuilding of short-term volatility demand, while longer-term expectations remain stable and largely unchanged.

Realized Volatility Declines, Volatility Risk Premium Widens

As implied volatility rebuilds modestly, realized volatility continues its downward trend.

Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility is currently at 27%, extending the overall decline seen in recent weeks. Meanwhile, 1-month implied volatility remains near 37%, keeping implied volatility significantly above realized volatility.

This pushes the 1-month volatility risk premium back to near 10 volatility points, the highest level in recent weeks. The right side of the chart shows a steady widening, driven more by the continued compression of realized volatility as spot price action stabilizes, rather than aggressive implied buying.

For hedgers, the key point is that despite the recent rebuilding of implied volatility, protection costs remain relatively cheap.

The current structure reflects a market where realized volatility is declining faster than implied volatility can reprice downwards, allowing the volatility risk premium to continue widening.

25 Delta Skew Shows Resurgent Downside Demand

While implied volatility has begun a modest rebuild, skew indicates that traders are still predominantly bidding for protection rather than upside exposure.

Bitcoin's 25 delta skew has become more bearish over the past week, with traders paying higher premiums for downside protection across all tenors. This shift is most pronounced at the front end, where skew rose from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in short-term put demand.

Longer-dated tenors also show higher put premiums, albeit to a lesser extent, with the 6-month tenor remaining near the 10% range. This suggests the market is not only hedging short-term risks but also maintaining a broader preference for downside protection.

The current skew structure reflects a distinctly defensive tilt, with short-term hedging demand rebuilding even as implied volatility remains relatively low.

Gamma Exposure Reveals Vulnerable Price Zone

The largest short gamma cluster is near the $75,000 strike price, with approximately $2.5 billion in negative exposure below the current spot price of $77,500. Another significant short gamma cluster remains near $82,000, with nearly $2 billion in exposure, although nearly $2 billion in positive gamma is spread across three strikes above spot, forming resistance before reaching the higher short gamma acceleration zone at $82,000.

This structure makes spot more sensitive to sharp downward moves near the major negative gamma strike of $75,000, where market maker hedging flows could amplify weakness. This accumulation aligns with recent flow activity. Put buying has accounted for 55.5% of taker premium flow over the past 7 days and over 90% in the last 24 hours, indicating a clear rotation into downside hedging.

The current gamma distribution reflects a more fragile structure, with concentrated put demand creating critical zones that could amplify volatility if spot re-enters them.

Conclusion

Bitcoin remains in a structurally constructive position, but the latest positioning and flow data suggest that momentum is becoming increasingly selective beneath the surface. Institutional futures participation continues to recover, and price remains resilient above key support levels. However, broad-based spot demand has not yet fully re-accelerated, particularly at US institutional venues.

Meanwhile, options positioning and the volatility market point to a more cautious environment forming near the upper end of the current range. The combination of weaker aggregate spot accumulation, softer ETF momentum, and resurgent demand for downside hedges suggests that the market is still searching for a stronger catalyst to sustain expansion above the low $80,000s.

In summary, the broader trend remains constructive, but the latest data indicates that the market is increasingly driven by positioning and derivatives activity rather than broad-based spot conviction. Until liquidity conditions improve further and stronger spot demand re-emerges, Bitcoin may continue to experience more whipsaw price action within its current range.