Analyst: BTC Market Structure Improves, but the Rebound Is Not Yet Fully Spot-Driven
Odaily News - CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that Bitcoin's market structure remains constructive, but the subsequent trend still depends on whether genuine spot demand can effectively absorb market supply.
On-chain data shows that ETF holdings continue to rise, institutional investors are still absorbing BTC, and large investors are forming buying support at current levels. However, Binance's BTC reserves remain at approximately 685,000–687,000 BTC, with the 7-day average net exchange inflow rising to around 593 BTC, indicating potential selling pressure persists. Stablecoin inflows have increased, with market purchasing power improving in tandem.
On the derivatives side, the funding rate has turned negative, and open interest fell from approximately $27.5 billion to $25.7 billion between September 4 and 5. However, Binance's BTC open interest has recently risen above $10 billion, a six-month high, suggesting that the current rebound is not yet fully spot-driven. The short-term holder SOPR has recovered above 1, and while sentiment improves, it also increases room for profit-taking. Some long-dormant BTC, including addresses linked to 2010 miners, have recently shown signs of activity.
The analyst noted that the key at this point is whether spot demand can absorb supply and push BTC to effectively break through the $82,000–$83,000 resistance range.
