美联储前副主席：现在默认选择是加息，沃什讲话扭转美联储此前逻辑

The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos reports that Fed Chair Warsh has eased some concerns about his strategy to combat inflation, but has also set the stage for a bigger test that could come three weeks later. If the Fed raises interest rates, it could anger the White House weeks before the midterm elections. If it holds steady, it could reignite the doubts that his remarks had eased.

Two points from Warsh's remarks on Friday particularly suggest the Fed could raise rates next month. First, Warsh found it hard to characterize current financial conditions as restrictive. Second, the more favorable summer inflation data did not convince him that the underlying trend was improving. Before Friday, the Fed's default choice was to hold steady unless the data was strong enough to justify action.

Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn said Warsh's remarks reversed that logic. "He has changed the previous assumption; now it's that they will raise rates unless the data shows there's no need to do so." This means the final decision will depend on developments before the September meeting, especially the August CPI report due out on September 11. Kohn said if the data suggests there's no need to act, the Fed should not hike; if the data comes in strong, it could weaken the argument that inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target. (WSJ)