Polymarket probability of "Fed 25 bps rate hike in July" drops to 18%, expectation of rate hold dominates

The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of the "Fed 25 bps rate hike in July" event on Polymarket has fallen to 18.1%, while the probability of "maintaining the current rate" has risen to 81%. Total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.

The market currently widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the US CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May and energy prices surged due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, keeping inflation pressures alive, the market is more inclined to wait for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in its June meeting. Key economic indicators set to be released on July 14, including the US June CPI data as well as employment and wage figures, will be important variables influencing the outcome of the July rate decision.

The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market. See the change before the price is set.