Federal Reserve's Hawkish Dot Plot Shocks Market: Gold Stages V-Shaped Rebound, Bitcoin's Key Range Falls Between $64,000-$65,000

Odaily reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler noted that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping approximately 4% from its intraday high at one point.

This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause in rate adjustments, but the latest dot plot indicates a significantly more hawkish policy path: multiple officials now expect that rate hikes may still be possible this year, further weakening market pricing for "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change carries more influence than the interest rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.

Market data shows that after the announcement, Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 before quickly reversing downward under heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably increased, indicating active sell-side-driven movement. The price is currently consolidating near the lower boundary of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant signs of bargain-buying capital inflows.

In stark contrast, gold performed differently. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, reclaiming the $4,300 level and trading steadily near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive properties and capital absorption capacity. Despite a marginal easing in geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.

Market participants point out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a rapid recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the critical $64,000 level, indicating that risk assets are more sensitive to a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment.

Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point will be whether Bitcoin can regain the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume-based stabilization; otherwise, it may continue a weak consolidation structure.