World Cup Drives Record Prediction Market Trading Volume, Bernstein Says Robinhood Could Benefit

According to Odaily, Bernstein stated that Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volume hits new highs during the World Cup.

Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to a record $4.8 billion on June 12, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.

Analysts noted that since its launch, the prediction market has become one of the fastest-growing revenue lines for Robinhood. The firm estimates that Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a year-over-year increase of approximately 286%. This is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.

Bernstein believes that Robinhood's partnership with Rothera, an exchange and clearing agency regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with contracts related to the FIFA World Cup and MLB contributing nearly all of the volume. Analysts stated that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capabilities, with its large user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and fee discounts of up to 50% for Gold members, all of which help drive user participation.

Furthermore, Bernstein indicated that competition in the prediction market sector is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm expects the World Cup to bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)