Bitcoin market faces structural pressure: BTC inflows into exchanges rise, stablecoin outflows weaken rebound momentum

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large volumes, while stablecoin liquidity continues to exit. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides is considered a key reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May peak.

Additionally, the 30-day net exchange flow indicator for Bitcoin has turned clearly positive, currently at approximately +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow state of about -85,000 to -115,000 BTC in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. This indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing strong buying liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to about -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges and the market's "ammunition" is diminishing.

Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is witnessing a combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, seller pressure is rising, and on the other hand, new buying power is insufficient, causing Bitcoin to retreat from its May highs and enter a phase of declining risk appetite.

If the market hopes to see a trend reversal, both indicators need to improve simultaneously: BTC should return to net outflows from exchanges, indicating that investors are re-accumulating, while stablecoins should flow back into exchanges, signaling the return of buying capital. Until both indicators return to positive territory, short-term rebounds may be viewed more as technical corrections.