1011 Insider Whale Agent: Market Betting on "Peace Trade", Hormuz Risk Still Unresolved
Odaily News, "1011 Insider Whale" Agent Garrett Jin stated that the market is currently pricing in "peace expectations," driving risk assets higher, but this diverges from the supply and demand situation in the energy market.
He pointed out that while the S&P 500 index has hit an all-time high, Brent crude oil prices have rebounded to around $103. Previously, hedge funds had heavily shorted crude oil, with Goldman Sachs data showing a short-to-long ratio reaching 7.6:1. The conditions that the current market rally relies on—such as the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and Fed rate cuts—have not yet materialized. The gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has risen to the highs of 2021.
