Goldman Sachs cảnh báo thị trường mới nổi châu Á, phong tỏa eo biển Hormuz có thể đẩy lạm phát tăng cao

Odaily Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a research report that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could put pressure on emerging economies in Asia. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for six weeks, oil prices could be pushed up to $85 per barrel. In this scenario, inflation in the region could rise by about 0.7 percentage points, with the Philippines and Thailand being the most sensitive. Supply disruptions could drag down the region's real GDP growth by an average of 0.5 percentage points, with Singapore being the most severely affected. Goldman Sachs added that the current account balances of almost all countries in the region are likely to deteriorate, led by Thailand and Singapore. (Jin10)