Tron TRON Industry Weekly: Interest Rate Meeting May Determine Whether BTC Can Break Through $66,000, Detailing the Construction of an AI Agent Network Aivive Across Data and Execution Environments

I. Outlook

1. Macro-Level Summary and Future Predictions

Weekly Macro Summary (2026/7/20 – 2026/7/26)

This week, global macro markets revolved around three main themes: central bank policies, energy prices, and trade frictions. The European Central Bank maintained a cautiously hawkish stance. Against the backdrop of rebounding energy prices due to the Middle East situation and inflation still above target, markets began to reprice expectations for further rate hikes. In the U.S., the Fed entered the quiet period before its policy meeting, shifting market focus to the late July FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, preliminary July PMI data from the U.S., Europe, and the UK generally showed economic resilience. However, manufacturing and business confidence were dragged down by high interest rates, tariffs, and geopolitical factors. Concurrently, the U.S. expanded tariff measures, and recurring tensions in the Middle East caused oil prices to surge. Global inflation expectations rose again, bond yields generally increased, and market risk appetite cooled.

Forecast for the Coming Week (2026/7/27 – 2026/8/2)

The coming week marks the most critical macro window of this period, with major central bank meetings including the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. The Fed's interest rate decision on July 30 is expected to be the core driver for global asset prices. Markets will focus more on its guidance for the future rate path rather than any immediate rate adjustment. Meanwhile, U.S. PCE inflation, non-farm payroll forecasts, Eurozone GDP, and inflation data will further verify whether the global economy continues its pattern of "slowing growth but sticky inflation." If energy prices remain high and trade frictions continue to escalate, the probability of the Fed and other central banks maintaining a hawkish stance will increase further. Global risk assets are expected to remain highly volatile in the short term, with markets paying closer attention to the impact of macro policy changes on liquidity and risk appetite.

2. Crypto Market Movements and Warnings

This week, the crypto market generally showed a volatile recovery trend. BTC opened around $65.2k at the start of the week. Influenced by renewed inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and improved expectations for crypto regulation, it briefly rose above $66k. However, it subsequently fell back due to declining macro risk appetite, ending the weekend around $64k. The overall weekly fluctuation range was approximately $63k to $66k. ETH underperformed BTC, opening around $1900 at the week's start before falling back to the $1850-$1900 range for consolidation. Market capital remained primarily focused on BTC ETFs and institutional allocation. The main drivers this week came from two aspects: First, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for several consecutive days, improving market liquidity expectations. 

In the coming week (July 27 – August 2), market focus will be on the Fed's FOMC meeting, the sustainability of ETF inflows, and changes in macro liquidity. Key short-term levels for BTC are the $63k support and $66k resistance. If ETF inflows continue and BTC breaks above $66k, the market may test the $68k-$70k range. If it falls below $63k, it could retest support around $60k. For ETH, focus on the $1850 support and $2000 resistance in the short term. If funds flow back into ETH ETFs, DeFi, and on-chain application ecosystems, it could drive an ETH rebound. 

3. Industry and Sector Hotspots

From July 20 to July 26, 2026, hotspots in the crypto industry primarily revolved around RWA, stablecoins, AI Agents, and institutional-grade financial infrastructure. The RWA track continues to be a key area for institutional capital deployment. Market focus is shifting from simple asset tokenization to asset infrastructure with real yield, liquidity, and DeFi composability. Tokenized treasuries, fund shares, and credit assets remain the main directions. 

The stablecoin ecosystem continues to evolve towards payment and financial infrastructure. More projects are building underlying networks around stablecoin settlement, cross-border payments, and institutional fund management. This drives the crypto industry from being transaction-oriented towards financial application-oriented. The AI+Crypto direction continues to focus on autonomous AI Agent execution, on-chain payments, and smart asset management. The industry focus is gradually shifting from concept hype to verifiable automated execution capabilities and practical application scenarios. 

Regarding financing and industry cooperation, traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the digital asset space. Institutional-grade trading, asset tokenization, and compliant infrastructure are becoming focal points for capital. The trend of convergence between Crypto and TradFi is further strengthening.

II. Market Hot Sectors and Potential Projects of the Week

1. Potential Project Overview

1.1. Analysis of a project with undisclosed total funding, led by renowned VC YZiLabs, with participation from Finality, L2IV, SNZ, and the Rollup – Building a unified trading network for global stablecoin and forex liquidity, Mobius Exchange

Introduction

Mobius is a Prime Brokerage Layer in DeFi, providing users with Unified Margin, Cross-Collateralization, and leverage trading capabilities across multiple perpetual DEXs and blockchain ecosystems.

Mobius aims to become the prime brokerage infrastructure for DeFi. By integrating different trading platforms and on-chain liquidity, it allows users to trade under a unified account system without needing to manage capital and margin separately across multiple protocols.

With Mobius, users can:

• Manage multiple positions using unified margin
• Use different assets as shared collateral
• Flexibly deploy leverage across multiple perpetual exchanges
• Conduct trading operations across multiple blockchain ecosystems

This provides capital efficiency and a trading experience comparable to hedge funds in traditional finance.

Protocol Mechanism Overview

Mobius connects lenders, traders, Credit Accounts, Venue Accounts, and external perpetual exchanges through a unified margin account system, enabling cross-platform capital management and leveraged trading.

Core Participants (Roles)

Lenders (LPs)

LPs provide capital to Mobius's lending market.

Their returns come from:

• Interest paid by borrowers
• Returns from capital utilization driven by platform lending demand

Borrowers (Traders / Strategy Executors)

Users can:

• Open a Credit Account
• Deposit collateral
• Borrow funds
• Execute trading strategies

Supported collateral assets include:

• Stablecoins
• BTC
• ETH
• Yield Assets

Executors

Executors are off-chain service providers.

They are mainly responsible for:

• Relaying on-chain trading intentions to external trading platforms
• Executing trades
• Synchronizing results back on-chain

Importantly:

Executors never hold user funds.

Their role is limited to information relay and state synchronization.

Transaction Lifecycle

1. Lend (Provide Liquidity)

LPs deposit assets into the lending pool.

The system makes these funds available for traders to borrow.

LPs earn interest based on borrowing demand.

2. Open a Credit Account

Traders first create a:

Credit Account

This is Mobius's core account system.

It primarily records:

• Collateral
• Borrowed amount
• Risk parameters
• Health Factor

The system continuously checks that:

All operations must maintain sufficient collateralization.

This avoids bad debt risk for the account.

3. Open a Venue Account

Within a Credit Account,

users can further create a:

Venue Account

Used to connect to specific trading venues.

Supports:

• Spot Trading
• Perpetual Contract Trading (Perps)
• Yield Vaults

4. Bind External Venues

Through the:

Venue Account Model

Users can bind their Credit Account to multiple external perpetual exchanges.

These include:

• Hyperliquid
• GMX
• Vertex
• Drift
• and other Perp DEXs

System Components:

Onchain Driver

Responsible for:

• Managing account lifecycle
• Maintaining on-chain state

Offchain Executor

Responsible for:

• Interacting with external exchanges
• Executing trading instructions
• Returning execution results

5. Execute Strategies

Mobius allows users to run complex strategies.

For example:

Delta Neutral Carry Trade

Combining:

• On-chain yield assets
• Perpetual contract hedging positions

To receive simultaneously:

• Base yield
• Funding rate returns

While reducing market directional risk.

6. Unified Accounting

This is one of Mobius's core innovations.

In traditional DeFi:

• Wallet balances
• Perpetual positions
• External platform assets

are usually independent.

Mobius calculates them together:

Credit Account Equity

Includes:

• On-chain collateral
• Venue Account funds
• Perpetual position value
• Account snapshot data

Together forming the:

Global Health Factor

Therefore:

Assets in external trading accounts can also be treated as collateral.

This significantly improves capital efficiency.

7. Rebalance

Since:

• Credit Account
• Venue Account

are still essentially two independent margin systems,

dynamic fund distribution is needed.

Users or automated bots (Rebalancers) will:

• Transfer funds between the two accounts
• Adjust margin levels
• Maintain a safe Health Factor

To prevent position liquidation.

Lending System

Money Market Model

• LPs deposit assets like USDC into the lending pool to earn interest.
• Borrowers use Credit Accounts to borrow funds for trading and strategy execution.
• Employs a Non-Rehypothecation design: collateral is not re-lent but remains in the borrower's account, reducing systemic risk and simplifying liquidation.

Market Structure (Markets)

• Each market consists of a Collateral asset and a Debt Token.
• The first Core Market supports:
• Collateral: BTC, ETH, exchange native tokens
• Borrowing asset: USDC
• Permissionless Markets will be opened in the future, allowing the community to create custom lending markets.

Interest Rate Model

• Low Utilization: Low borrowing rates to attract borrowing demand.
• High Utilization: Higher borrowing rates encourage repayments and attract more liquidity.
• Kink Point: When capital utilization exceeds a set threshold, interest rates rise rapidly to protect pool liquidity.

Core Value

Mobius's lending system is essentially the liquidity foundation of its Prime Brokerage architecture. By using a unified capital pool, non-rehypothecation, and a dynamic interest rate model, it achieves risk isolation while improving capital efficiency, supporting cross-platform unified margin and leveraged trading.

Credit Account

Core Positioning

The Credit Account is a dedicated smart contract account created for each borrower on Mobius and is the core of the entire unified margin system.

Its main functions are:

• Holding user collateral and borrowed funds
• Executing on-chain transactions and strategy operations
• Managing risk and leverage
• Calculating the unified account Health Factor

Although users can borrow funds for trading, the borrowed funds remain within the account system, so the protocol as a whole remains in an over-collateralized state.

Account Architecture

A Credit Account consists of two parts:

① User Interface

Responsible for:

• Opening accounts
• Depositing collateral
• Borrowing
• Executing trades
• Closing accounts

② Risk Engine

Responsible for:

• Monitoring account balances
• Calculating Health Factor (HF)
• Managing adapter permissions
• Triggering liquidations

All operations must be verified by the Risk Engine.

Permitted Assets

Each Credit Account belongs to a single specific market.

For example, if a market supports:

• BTC
• ETH

as collateral, and USDC as the borrowing asset,

then the account can only hold:

• BTC
• ETH
• USDC

This restriction helps to:

• Reduce risk complexity
• Improve liquidation efficiency
• Precisely