Coinbase shares have plunged 30% this year, with Wall Street believing they are nearing a bottom

Original Author: Jose Antonio Lanz

Original Translation: Chopper

Profit expectations were lowered, but stock prices rose instead. Yesterday, shares of Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) both rose by approximately 3-4%. This followed a report from Chicago-based investment bank William Blair, which lowered its revenue and earnings expectations for Coinbase while maintaining an "Outperform" rating.

William Blair's core view is that all current negative factors are already priced into the stock, and investors should continue to hold Coinbase.

The firm lowered its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and its 2027 revenue estimate by 13%; adjusted EBITDA expectations for both years were slashed by 34%. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury stated that the company's earnings will bottom out in the second half of 2026 and recover in 2027. They advise investors to continue holding Coinbase as spot crypto trading volumes bottom out in tandem with Bitcoin.

William Blair predicts that Coinbase's total annual trading volume will decline by approximately 44% to $669 billion, before rebounding over 32% in 2027.

The firm believes there are structural differences between this cycle and 2022. The current environment includes positive factors that did not exist four years ago, such as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued institutional capital inflows, and a maturing industry regulatory framework.

The report is also bullish on Coinbase's Ethereum Layer 2 network, Base, seeing it as a potential core profit growth driver. Derivatives and prediction markets further broaden revenue streams, reducing the business's reliance on spot trading alone. The retail derivatives business alone generated an annualized revenue exceeding $200 million in the first quarter.

Not all institutions are optimistic about COIN's short-term outlook. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley lowered his COIN price target from $170 to $155, maintaining a Neutral rating. He noted that the core themes for Q2 are prediction markets and perpetual contracts, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market volumes. He also warned that the market will closely watch the potential competitive impact from perpetual contracts in Q3.

COIN's stock price has fallen nearly 30% year-to-date, compared to a roughly 26% decline in Bitcoin over the same period. Circle listed on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025 at an issue price of $31, and its stock price has dropped 20% since the beginning of the year.

"W" Bottom Pattern Forms: John Bollinger Predicts a Significant Bitcoin Rally

Optimistic signals also appear on the technical front. John Bollinger, the inventor of the widely-used volatility indicator Bollinger Bands and a veteran technical analyst, has been indicating since early July that Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a key bottom pattern.

On July 2nd, Bollinger posted on social platform X, pointing out that the chart shows a "W" double-bottom reversal structure: the two lows form a consolidation range with a rebound in the middle. Once the price breaks through the resistance level between the two bottoms, an uptrend is officially confirmed.

He described the current price action as a standard fractal structure, with a small W-bottom nested within a larger one, and the same pattern is visible on the weekly chart. However, he also objectively noted the uncertainty: multiple bullish patterns have appeared during this bear market, only to be broken by selling pressure.

In his latest update, Bollinger stated that if this W-bottom formation completes, he will view it as a clear signal of a trend reversal. This represents his most definitive bullish signal to date, suggesting the move is more than just a short-term bounce.

Earlier this year, Bollinger disclosed that his investment entity holds long Bitcoin positions, aligning his view with his holdings. From a broader technical trend perspective, Bitcoin's overall bearish structure has not yet reversed, but downward momentum is continuously weakening.

Has Bitcoin's Bottom Already Arrived?

According to the latest weekly report from on-chain data firm Glassnode, the primary source of selling pressure in the market this year – panic selling by long-term holders – peaked two weeks ago and has since declined. This metric, which filters out intra-chain transfer noise to measure actual selling volume by long-term holders, has turned downwards for the first time in this cycle.

The price low in June attracted significant buying interest. Glassnode detected wallets of various sizes collectively accumulating coins at the low. Bitcoin's negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index has deepened further, while its correlation with U.S. equities continues to weaken. The sensitivity of the coin's price to positive macroeconomic news is returning: following Tuesday's weaker-than-expected inflation data, Bitcoin's rise far outpaced major U.S. stock indices.

For on-chain analysts and Wall Street institutions, a core question remains: The Bitcoin spot market has not yet shown sustained buying pressure sufficient to confirm a reversal.

Derivatives positions continue to be closed out, long-term selling pressure is gradually weakening, and the panic premium in the options market is narrowing. However, new capital inflows have not yet materialized on a large scale. William Blair expects a market turning point in 2027, predicting that after a 44% plunge in Coinbase's trading volume this year, it will rebound by 32% next year.