Original: Odaily 星球日报 (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

In the previous article predicting the quarterfinals of the World Cup, six AIs unanimously favored France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. After four matches concluded, all four semifinal tickets were accurately predicted by the AIs without a single miss.

France had the easiest path to advancement. Although Mbappé missed a penalty, he subsequently contributed a goal and an assist, leading France to a 2-0 victory over Morocco. Spain pulled off another dramatic late win, with Merino scoring in the 88th minute to beat Belgium 2-1. The other two matches went into extra time: Bellingham scored a brace, helping England come from behind to defeat Norway 2-1; Argentina, facing a Swiss side reduced to ten men, struggled until the final moments of extra time, scoring two goals in quick succession to secure a hard-fought 3-1 victory.

Similarly, to participate more effectively in the semifinal prediction market, I once again consulted six AI models: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok. I asked them to predict the result in regular time (win/draw/loss), the exact score, and whether the match would go into extra time or a penalty shootout.

However, by the semifinals, the predictions from the six AIs showed clear divergence. For France vs. Spain, five AIs favored France to advance, and all of them predicted a 2-1 scoreline. The England vs. Argentina match saw the most significant split: three AIs backed England, while the other three favored Argentina. There was also no consensus on whether the game would go into extra time or even penalties.

Five AIs Unanimously Predict France Will Defeat Spain 2-1; Only Gemini Favoring Spain to Advance

The first semifinal of this World Cup is France vs. Spain, scheduled for 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 15. Monitoring from the PPP prediction market tool shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Semifinal France vs. Spain" prediction event, the probability of France winning stands at 42%; a draw at 30%; and Spain winning at 30%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, the probability of France advancing is 60%, while Spain's is 40%.

These are the two most defensively solid teams in this World Cup. France has not conceded a goal since entering the knockout stages, and Spain has only had its goal breached once throughout the entire tournament. However, their methods of winning are entirely different. Spain controls the tempo through possession and pressing, while France excels in rapid transitions, using the speed and individual skill of their forward players to create threats directly.

Among the six AIs, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen all chose France to advance. Furthermore, all five models predicted the exact same scoreline: France 2-1 Spain. While Spain may enjoy more possession, the space behind their aggressively advancing full-backs could become a vulnerability. Facing Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise, France does not need sustained pressure; just a few transition opportunities could be enough to change the game.

ChatGPT provided a more detailed assessment of the match flow, suggesting France would score first on a counter-attack, Spain would equalize in the second half, and then, as Spain committed more players forward, France would exploit the space behind to score a late winner. Although Claude thought there was a possibility the match could be dragged into extra time, it ultimately, like Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen, predicted a 2-1 victory for France in regular time.

The only AI choosing Spain was Gemini, predicting a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes, followed by Spain winning on penalties. Gemini's key judgment wasn't about Spain overwhelming France, but rather that Spain could, through sustained possession, reduce the number of transition phases in the game, thereby neutralizing France's most potent counter-attacking threat.

As long as Spain doesn't concede early, the match could fall into their preferred rhythm. Although France possesses explosive players like Mbappé and Dembélé, facing Spain's midfield control, it will be difficult to find much open space. Moreover, France hasn't conceded a goal in the knockout stage, making it equally hard for Spain to score consecutively in settled attacks. Therefore, Gemini's analysis suggests the match could remain low-scoring for an extended period, with both teams potentially scoring once and then grinding all the way to penalties.

Thus, whether Gemini can be the sole AI to correctly predict Spain's advancement has become another major focus of this match. In contrast, the other semifinal involves much greater disagreement—between England and Argentina, the six AIs couldn't even form a consensus on who would advance.

England vs. Argentina Prediction Split 50/50, Disagreement Over Extra Time or Penalties

The second semifinal of this World Cup is England vs. Argentina, scheduled for 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 16. According to data from predict.fun, for regular time, the probability of England winning is 37%; a draw is 33%; and Argentina winning is 32%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, the probability of England advancing is 55%, while Argentina's is 45%.

Compared to France and Spain, this match is harder to predict. Both teams played the full 120 minutes in the previous round. England came from behind to beat Norway in extra time, while Argentina only defeated Switzerland late in extra time. Physical exertion, the form of key players, and the overall rhythm of the match could all influence the final outcome.

Regarding the predictions of the six AI models, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen support England; ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favor Argentina.

Those supporting England place more value on physicality, set pieces, and attacking power. Grok and DeepSeek both predict England will win 2-1 in regular time, while Qwen gives a more aggressive 2-0 prediction. England's attack is currently heavily focused on Kane and Bellingham. The duo has accounted for the vast majority of the team's goals, with Bellingham stepping up to solve problems in two consecutive knockout rounds. From these models' perspectives, England can apply constant pressure through high pressing, crosses, and set pieces, aiming to finish the match within 90 minutes.

Supporters of Argentina place more faith in knockout-stage experience. Gemini predicts Argentina will win 2-1 in regular time, believing that Messi's organizational skills and ability to produce key plays are still decisive at this level. Claude's assessment is more conservative, suggesting the teams are likely to be locked in a low-scoring battle, with a 1-1 draw at the end of regular time being a real possibility. It sees a higher probability of the match going to extra time compared to the first semifinal and ultimately leans towards Argentina advancing. ChatGPT took the prediction straight to penalties, predicting a 1-1 draw in regular time, with neither team daring to commit too heavily in extra time, and finally, Argentina winning 4-3 on penalties thanks to Emiliano Martínez and a richer history of penalty shootout success.

In the previous round, the AIs were highly consistent in predicting the semi-finalists, and they were all correct. By the semifinals, the predictions have resulted in one "consensus match" and one "split match." Can France break through Spain's possession system? Will England and Argentina battle it out all the way to penalties? This time, whose prediction is more trustworthy?

Recommended Reading:

"Just a Few Days into the World Cup, Some AI Models Have Achieved Perfection in Predictions, While Others Have Faltered"

"Predicting World Cup Knockout Matches, Why is There Such a Big Difference in AI Capabilities?"

"World Cup Quarterfinals About to Begin, Who Are the AIs Voting For?"