全球资本正在重构：风险资产定价逻辑进入新阶段
- Core Thesis: Global capital is shifting from narrative-driven to value-driven allocation. The AI industry continues to attract substantial capital due to its verifiable profit models, while the crypto market shows structural divergence driven by a lack of genuine capital inflows and a sustained narrative, with funds favoring assets offering greater certainty.
- Key Factors:
- The AI industry chain has entered a "deliverable phase," where institutions can price assets based on profitability models and cash flows, whereas most crypto projects remain driven by narratives and expectations.
- The crypto market has transitioned from broad appreciation to structural divergence, with capital concentrating on core assets like BTC, while liquidity for small and mid-cap assets continues to decline.
- The next crypto market upswing requires new sources of capital, specifically from channels connecting to traditional finance—such as RWA, stablecoin payments, and on-chain finance—reaching meaningful scale.
- The core of trading event-driven narratives, like the World Cup, lies in capturing shifts in market sentiment and opportunities for capital reallocation after expectations are priced in, rather than predicting the event's outcome itself.
- In the next 6-12 months, sectors capable of sustainably attracting capital need to demonstrate real-world business viability, including RWA, stablecoin payments, and the convergence of AI and Crypto.
AI continues to push valuation highs, while the crypto market is still awaiting truly incremental capital inflows.
Over the past period, global risk assets have shown clear divergence: on one hand, the US stock AI industry chain continues to attract institutional capital inflows, with valuations and earnings expectations rising in tandem; on the other hand, overall liquidity in the crypto market remains weak. Aside from core assets like BTC, most sectors are still in a state of fluctuation and rotation.
Both being risk assets, why have they developed completely different rhythms?
Centered on the theme "Global Capital is Restructuring: Risk Asset Pricing Logic Enters a New Phase," a recent Space discussion analyzed this change from perspectives including capital structure, market expectations, and trading behavior.
Divergence Between AI and Crypto: Capital is Seeking 'Verifiable Certainty'
Regarding the current most obvious market divergence, the consensus among multiple participants is that capital hasn't left risk assets but is reselecting directions with "stronger verifiability."
Blockchain Panda first mentioned that a key reason for AI's sustained capital attraction this cycle is that the industry chain has entered a "realization phase."
More tech companies are beginning to show real revenue and growth paths. Institutions can price assets based on earnings models, cash flows, and industry cycles, making AI assets possess stronger interpretability and sustainable allocation logic.
In contrast, apart from a few assets like BTC, most projects in the crypto market still rely on narratives and expectations. Hotspots rotate quickly from Layer2 to Meme, then to AI Agent and RWA, but a capital theme that can sustain for several quarters or more is lacking.
In his view, the essence of this disparity isn't a decline in risk appetite but capital's repricing of "certainty."
From Broad Rallies to Divergence: The Market Enters a Structural Phase
pandaWL believes the current market state is closer to structural divergence rather than a simple correction.
He points out that BTC's overall market structure remains relatively stable, but liquidity for small and mid-cap assets continues to decline. This indicates the market has shifted from a phase where "broad upward movement drives returns" to a phase where "capital concentrates on a few assets."
In this process, the importance of asset quality and capital efficiency increases significantly.
He further states that for the next upward cycle to begin, internal rotation alone is insufficient; new sources of capital are needed.
For example, directions like RWA, stablecoin payments, and on-chain finance essentially attempt to connect with traditional financial systems to build new capital entry points. Only when these channels truly achieve scale effects can the crypto market regain sustained incremental capital.
Beyond the World Cup, the Key is How the Market Prices Sentiment
As the World Cup enters the knockout stages, event-driven trading has once again become a focal point of market discussion.
Crypto.0824 stated that compared to predicting match results, he is more focused on the process of market sentiment changes.
When the market forms a highly consensus expectation for a particular outcome, odds and prices often already reflect that information. The real opportunities often appear during the capital redistribution phase "after the expectation is realized."
Therefore, he pays more attention not to the outcome itself, but to how the market reprices risk before and after the event.
He also noted that the World Cup is not just a sporting event; it also drives synchronized fluctuations in prediction markets, sports-related assets, and community sentiment. From a trading perspective, it's more worthwhile to capture the event's impact on capital flows rather than a single result.
Where Will the Next Wave of Incremental Capital Come From?
Regarding market direction over the next 6–12 months, the judgment among multiple participants is relatively consistent: the market is transitioning from "narrative-driven" to "value-driven."
katelynn believes that sectors capable of sustainably attracting future capital need to possess real commercial implementation capabilities, not merely rely on conceptual expansion.
She highlighted three specific directions:
RWA: Pushing real-world assets onto the chain, serving as a crucial channel connecting traditional finance
Stablecoin Payments: Evolving from a trading tool to a global payment and settlement infrastructure
AI + Crypto Integration: Including AI Agents, on-chain data services, and decentralized computing networks
The commonality of these directions is that they are beginning to generate real users and actual demand, rather than solely depending on market sentiment.
Global Capital is Restructuring, Market Pricing Logic is Changing
Throughout the discussion, "restructuring" was a repeatedly mentioned keyword.
Whether it's the AI industry entering a phase of profit realization or the changing liquidity structure within the crypto market, both point to the same underlying trend: global capital is redefining the pricing method for risk assets.
The past pattern of broad-based rallies fueled by liquidity is being replaced by "structural selection." Capital tends to flow towards assets capable of continuously creating value and demonstrating long-term delivery capabilities.
Simultaneously, event-driven trading is becoming one of the new incremental scenarios for the crypto market. With global events like the World Cup, the interaction between market sentiment, outcome expectations, and capital flows becomes more frequent.
In this context, prediction markets and event trading are emerging as one of the evolving new narratives for the market.
Risk Warning: Digital assets and leveraged trading carry high risk. Market fluctuations may lead to loss of principal. Please make rational judgments and prudent decisions.
