BitMart Research Weekly: Multiple Bearish Factors Converge, Crypto Market Sees Largest Single-Week Drop Since FTX, Macro and On-Chain Full Review

1. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets

1.1. Stronger-Than-Expected NFP Shakes Markets: Rate Cut Hopes Reversed, Hike Pricing Intensifies

The biggest macro variable this week was the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) for May. The economy added 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. This robust labor data significantly cooled expectations for a Fed rate cut within the year. Markets began repricing the risk of rate hikes, with Goldman Sachs delaying its rate cut forecast to 2027. Following the data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.55%, hitting a two-week high. The Nasdaq saw a sharp single-day decline of 4.2%, with tech and semiconductor sectors under notable pressure. Broadcom fell over 12% in a single day due to lower-than-expected AI revenue guidance, dragging down other stocks like Micron, Arm, and AMD, indicating valuation pressures are being released following a crowded AI trade.

1.2. Geopolitics & Energy: Glimmer of Hope in Iran Talks, but Middle East Risks Persist

Trump stated that U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have entered the "final critical stage," with ceasefire discussions related to the Strait of Hormuz continuing to advance. This led to a phase of easing concerns over extreme Middle East risks, with both WTI and Brent crude oil falling over 3% in a single day. However, geopolitical tensions have not truly subsided. Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, and joint U.S.-Israeli military actions are reinforcing regional uncertainty. Coupled with the eurozone's May inflation rising to 3.2%, energy prices are further fueling market concerns over "reflation" and limiting the Fed's future room for rate cuts. Copper prices continued to rise as tariff reviews approached, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup successively raising their full-year price targets.

1.3. Key Fed Window: Warsh's First FOMC Looming, This Week's CPI Becomes Global Focus

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first FOMC meeting on June 17. While maintaining rates unchanged in June remains the market's base case, the pricing logic has shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether to hike again." The U.S. May CPI report, due this Wednesday, will be the most critical data window before the June FOMC meeting. If inflation exceeds expectations again, Treasury yields could continue to rise, increasing valuation pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a significant drop in CPI could alleviate market worries about "reflation."

Meanwhile, SpaceX's planned IPO on June 12, with an estimated valuation of ~$1.77 trillion, combined with the liquidity absorption effect from major IPOs like Anthropic, may continue to suppress the resilience of risk assets. Additionally, the Japanese yen is approaching the 160 level. If the Bank of Japan delivers a surprise rate hike on June 16, the unwinding of carry trades could create additional shocks for tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Crypto Market

2.1. Market Overview: BTC Plunges ~17% in a Single Week, Worst Week Since FTX Collapse

The crypto market experienced its most severe weekly decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022. BTC dropped from ~$72,700 at the start of June to a low of ~$61,100 on June 5, a weekly decline of approximately 17%-20%. ETH fell by about 22% in tandem, currently trading around $1,682, representing a ~66% decline from its all-time high.

The total crypto market cap fell from $2.57 trillion to $2.25 trillion, erasing ~$390 billion in a single week. Total weekly leveraged liquidations reached ~$7 billion, with longs accounting for ~$5.7 billion. The single-day liquidation amount on June 5 hit $1.146 billion, with over 240,000 traders liquidated. The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 9, entering the "Extreme Fear" zone. The core drivers of this decline are a confluence of falling risk appetite in U.S. equities, surging Treasury yields, persistent ETF outflows, and the concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs.

2.2. Persistent ETF Net Outflows, Systemic Reduction in Institutional Positioning

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $325 million this week, bringing cumulative total net inflows to ~$53.94 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $5.97 million this week, with cumulative total net inflows at ~$11.2 billion. The combination of ETF outflows, professional investors reducing BTC exposure, and continued selling by some institutions is putting systemic reduction pressure on the crypto market.

Strategy has paused its ATM equity offering program for coin purchases, prioritizing the repurchase of ~$1.5 billion in convertible notes. As a significant marginal buyer of BTC over the past two years, the slowdown in its buying pace implies a weakening of short-term market support. Overall, the ongoing investment boom in AI infrastructure continues to drain liquidity from the crypto market. The liquidity absorption effect from mega-IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic also remains a core headwind preventing crypto from staging an independent rally.

2.3. On-Chain Data: Whales Buying the Dip Coexisting with Large-Scale Liquidation Risks

On-chain signals were clearly divergent this week. On one hand, some large holders began buying the dip. An Ethereum OG repurchased 35,723 ETH at an average price of $1,563. One whale bought a total of 93,330 ETH using ~$152 million USDT. Joseph Lubin added another 30,000 ETH to his Maker vault, bringing his total staked ETH to 110,000 to avoid liquidation risks.

On the other hand, liquidation risks are not yet resolved. Three major whales face liquidation threats on a combined 345,000 ETH position (worth ~$537 million), with liquidation price levels ranging from approximately $1,241 to $1,472. The total stablecoin market cap has dropped to $310 billion, a weekly decline of about 1.89%, indicating weak on-chain purchasing power overall. BTC is currently testing support near the 200-week moving average, around $61,821. This is the first time since 2023 that it has touched this critical level. Whether it can hold support near $60,000 will be the key variable for determining short-term market direction.

2.4. Industry Narrative: Accelerated Derivatives Compliance, Institutional Infrastructure Buildout Picks Up Pace

The industry narrative this week continued to focus on "institutional infrastructure" and "compliant derivatives." CME launched the Nasdaq Crypto Index futures on June 8, covering assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and XLM. Coinbase, under the CFTC regulatory framework, launched four types of perpetual stock index futures on the same day: AI10, China10, Defense10, and Tech100.

Ondo Finance's Ondo Perps went live on June 9, attempting to extend perpetual contracts from crypto assets to equity assets like stocks. Meanwhile, quant firms like DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are rapidly forming prediction market teams to deploy cross-platform arbitrage strategies around Polymarket and Kalshi. Overall, this sharp sell-off has not weakened the institutional trend; instead, it has reinforced the main narrative of "compliant derivatives + on-chain financial infrastructure." The crypto market is gradually shifting from being driven by retail sentiment to being driven by institutional capital efficiency and compliant products.

This article is for market analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.