BitMart Research Weekly: ETF Outflows + AI Siphoning, Crypto Market Fluctuates to Find Bottom

1. Macroeconomic & Traditional Financial Markets

1. AI Narrative Strengthens: Anthropic Files Confidentially, Alphabet Doubles Down, Tech Stocks Hit New Highs

All three major US stock indices continued their upward trend this week, maintaining a strong performance. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.13%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.81%. The S&P 500 has now risen approximately 16% since April, marking its ninth consecutive weekly gain and its longest winning streak since 2023. AI remains the primary driving force, with the chip and storage sectors continuing to lead gains. The narrative of an AI infrastructure "arms race" continues to receive positive feedback from capital markets.

The most landmark event this week was Anthropic officially filing a confidential S-1 registration with the SEC on June 1st, targeting a valuation of approximately $965 billion. Potential IPO financing could reach up to $75 billion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history if successful. Simultaneously, Alphabet announced a massive new $80 billion AI infrastructure financing plan, with Berkshire Hathaway participating in $10 billion. These signals further reinforced market pricing expectations for the long-term expansion of AI infrastructure. However, the potential liquidity suction effect of Anthropic's IPO is also beginning to draw market attention. While the company's annualized revenue has surpassed $47 billion, it remains in a high-growth expansion phase. The current valuation is essentially based on a deep discounting of future AI application-layer revenues. If the post-IPO market capitalization validation falls short of expectations, or if it competes with SpaceX for public market liquidity during the same period, the correction pressure on AI tech stocks will increase significantly.

2. Geopolitics: US-Israel Military Operations Escalate, US-Iran Negotiation Window Remains, Energy Prices Face Renewed Pressure

Geopolitical situations showed divergence this week. On one hand, Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly, with discussions on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz continuing. This has led to a narrowing of market expectations for the tail risk of a full-scale Middle East conflict. On the other hand, Israel announced an expansion of ground operations in Lebanon. Joint US-Israel military actions triggered a new wave of regional tensions, pushing Brent crude oil up approximately 1.3% back to near $93 per barrel. Energy market volatility reflects the current contradictions in macro pricing: the AI-driven tech investment boom has reduced market concerns about a recession. However, instability in energy supply, sticky core inflation, and the US Q1 GDP second estimate being revised down to an annualized 2.5% still leave the Federal Reserve with insufficient room to cut rates significantly. Copper prices also rose further as US tariff reviews approach, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup successively raising their full-year price targets.

3. Fed Framework & Rate Expectations: Warsh Takes Office, June FOMC Window Opens

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in on May 22nd. The market views the upcoming June 17th FOMC meeting, which he will chair, as a key node for macro pricing in the second half of the year. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the market assigns a 99.4% probability to rates remaining unchanged in June and a 93.0% probability for July, indicating extremely limited expectations for near-term rate cuts. Recent high yields on US Treasuries mean the macro-financial environment is effectively equivalent to a "disguised rate hike" of about 75 basis points in practical terms, exerting implicit downward pressure on risk asset valuations. Last week, the US Dollar Index fell back to 98.942, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.437%, and gold settled at $4,538, reflecting a dual pricing of "prolonged high interest rates + rising safe-haven demand." The May non-farm payrolls data due this week will be a crucial variable for validating the Fed's subsequent policy path.

Additionally, the Japanese Yen continued to weaken, falling 1.7% in May alone and approaching the critical 160 level. Japan's Ministry of Finance spent approximately $7.36 billion on intervention over the past month, but bearish bets against the Yen by leveraged funds have risen to their highest level since July 2024. If the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raises rates at its June 16th meeting, the unwinding of global carry trades could marginally tighten liquidity, potentially suppressing both tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Crypto Market

1. Market Overview: BTC Falls ~6% for the Week, ETF Records Consecutive Net Outflows

The crypto market continued its correction this week, showing a clear divergence from the new highs in US stocks. BTC opened the week around $77,267, dropping to approximately $72,675 by June 1st, a weekly decline of about 6%. ETH fell by about 4.5% concurrently, with the ETH/BTC ratio remaining roughly flat, indicating similar capital pressure on both assets rather than an independent weakening of ETH. ETF capital pressure was particularly prominent. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest consecutive net outflow streak since their launch in January 2024, with net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days totaling approximately $2.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net outflow of about $528 million, its second-largest single-day outflow since its inception. Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $694 million. The market Fear & Greed Index fell further from 39 last week to 29, entering the "Fear" zone.

In derivatives, BTC open interest declined in tandem with the price drop. Deribit's option skew rose back to around 16%, with Put option premiums approaching extreme levels for the near term, indicating a significant increase in hedging demand. The total stablecoin market cap decreased by about $2.758 billion net over the past 7 days, with on-chain spot purchasing power remaining weak. Overall, the Crypto market lacks independent incremental capital flows and remains suppressed by institutional funds being diverted to AI tech assets.

2. RWA & On-Chain Stocks: DTCC Integrates Stellar

On May 27th, DTC, a subsidiary of DTCC, announced plans to integrate its tokenized asset services onto the Stellar public chain, targeting a launch in the first half of 2027. The services will cover the tokenized issuance of blue-chip stocks, ETFs, and US Treasuries, as well as corporate action processing and cross-chain interoperability. Given that DTCC processes approximately $4.7 quadrillion in securities transactions annually, its integration with Stellar signifies that tokenized equities are moving into the core US securities settlement infrastructure, rather than remaining on self-built issuance layers of on-chain platforms. Following this news, XLM surged over 30% on the day, with 24-hour trading volume spiking more than 9 times.

3. Long-Term Perspective: MicroStrategy Pauses BTC Purchases, Anthropic IPO Could Be a Liquidity Tipping Point

MicroStrategy's actions this week are noteworthy. Between May 26-31, the company sold a small amount of 32 BTC to pay preferred stock dividends, while simultaneously pausing its ATM equity offering program used for raising funds to buy Bitcoin. It currently holds approximately 843,700 BTC. The company's strategy has shifted towards debt management, planning to prioritize repurchasing roughly $1.5 billion of its zero-coupon convertible notes due in 2029, temporarily halting its Bitcoin purchases. As one of the most significant incremental buyers in the crypto market over the past two years, the slowdown in MicroStrategy's pace implies a weakening of short-term support.

From a broader perspective, Anthropic officially filed its S-1 on June 1st, and SpaceX is also moving towards a massive IPO. The combined potential fundraising scale for both could exceed $100 billion. Historically, ultra-large IPOs often create a liquidity suction effect on secondary markets in the short term. Both AI tech stocks and crypto assets, as high-beta risk assets, will face pressure from funds being temporarily withdrawn. Overall, the biggest macro headwind for Crypto currently comes from the continuous strengthening of the AI landscape. With high-valuation tech assets like Anthropic and SpaceX successively impacting public market liquidity, the window for an independent Crypto rally remains limited. If the AI bubble undergoes a phase of correction in the future, BTC may experience a significant adjustment concurrently. However, this window could paradoxically become the opportunity for the formation of a cyclical bottom in the Crypto market.

This article is purely market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk control measures before trading.