Bitget研究院周报（节选）：SpaceX巨额IPO来了，市场会被"抽血"吗？

Market Hotspots:

1. Mega IPO wave hits US stock market: SpaceX S-1 has been disclosed, expected to list as early as June (valuation $1.5-2.0T). Deutsche Bank estimates the impact of the largest IPO on the market is only about 1%. Historically, IPO waves act more as a lagging indicator of bull markets; IPOs do not cause significant market declines but rather lay the foundation for future uptrends. The Blue Origin rocket explosion caused the Hyperliquid SpaceX contract to flash crash 43% in 7 minutes, liquidating 400+ retail traders. Bitget focuses on Pre-IPO spot assets, enabling market participants to engage in spot/contract arbitrage with higher market depth, effectively controlling the risk of price wicks.

2. Stablecoin divergence intensifies: USDGO has grown 547% since March, driven by capital inflows attracted to its compliant backing; USDe market cap has shrunk by 25.5%, indicating weakening marginal demand for algorithmic stablecoins. USDGO offers a relatively high base yield on Bitget and can also be used as subscription asset for IPO Prime, enjoying high market demand and a strong peg to $1.

3. In May, BTC fell 3.4%. Among 22 quantitative strategies, 18 outperformed simply holding BTC, with an average alpha of +1.93%. The OBV volume-price divergence strategy topped the list at +7.41%.

Assets to watch: BTC, XLM, PSG (UEFA Champions League catalyst), HYPE (reached ATH), AVGO (Q2 earnings report on 6/3), NG (Natural Gas). 

1. Impact of Mega IPOs on the Market

Three mega IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are hitting the market simultaneously. SpaceX has disclosed its S-1 filing, targeting a listing in the second week of June with a valuation of $1.5-2.0T. The $75B fundraising would make it the largest IPO in history. The impact of the issuance wave itself on the market is mild (about 1%). Historically, the median S&P 500 return is about 8% three months after an IPO wave, exceeding 20% after 12 months (as shown in the chart above, where yellow areas mark historical IPO waves, and S&P 500 maintained an upward trend during most of these periods).

Demand remains robust: household cash balances are $3.3T above trend, Q1 profit growth was the strongest in 20 years, and buybacks remain high. However, there are risks in positioning structure – overall equity positioning is at the 53rd percentile, but large-cap tech is at the 93rd percentile. In terms of fund flows, tech funds saw inflows of $9B, the largest in seven months, while Japan, Europe, and emerging markets experienced outflows for six consecutive weeks. The impact of IPOs will not be uniform; it will resonate most strongly in the congested tech sector.

2. Hyperliquid vs Bitget Pre-IPO Contract Liquidity

On May 29, a static fire test explosion of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket evaporated approximately $8B in market value from the space sector. Panic quickly spread to SpaceX Pre-IPO assets. The Hyperliquid SPACEX contract plummeted 43% from $2,286 to $1,299 within 7 minutes, leading to forced liquidation of positions across over 400 wallets (liquidation amount $1.51M).

Bitget's SPCXUSDT employs a differentiated architecture: it focuses on the preSPCX spot token, with the spot asset acting as an anchor. This provides better liquidity in the contract market, allowing market makers to hedge through spot inventory, effectively curbing price wicks during extreme market conditions. This "spot + contract" dual-layer structure demonstrates a structural advantage in liquidity depth and price stability. 

3. Stablecoin Growth Analysis

Since March 1, the growth trajectories of the four stablecoins have diverged drastically. USDGO grew 547% ($50M to $323M), issued by Anchorage Digital Bank and distributed by OSL (which holds a Hong Kong SFC license). Its compliant backing creates a strong capital magnet. USDT and USDC grew steadily (+2.7%/+0.9%), collectively dominating the market. The USDe market cap shrank by 25.5% as negative funding rates in the declining BTC/ETH environment compressed yields from its delta-neutral strategy. In terms of price stability, USDT and USDC deviated by no more than 0.15%, USDe remained in the $0.999-$1.001 range, and USDGO has recently consistently anchored to $1, reflecting higher market demand. 

Bitget users holding USDGO in their accounts automatically receive daily yields of up to 4.3% APR without staking or locking. Additionally, holding it via Flash Swap for over 14 days qualifies users for a two-way slippage subsidy, enabling a 1:1 zero-friction conversion to USDT. USDGO can also be used as subscription asset for IPO Prime, combining compliance with yield potential. 

4. Quantitative Strategy Monthly Report

In May, BTC fell from $76,490 to $73,876 (-3.4%). Among 22 strategies, 18 outperformed holding BTC, with an average alpha of +1.93%. Top tier (alpha > 4%): OBV volume-price divergence (+7.41%), traditional MACD (+7.04%), Bollinger Bands (+7.00%), Turtle Breakout (+4.98%), ATR Breakout (+4.96%), VWAP Mean Reversion (+4.44%), Order Flow (+4.07%). Negative alpha strategies: BarUpDn (-6.35%), Outside Bar (-4.49%), which exhibit excessive directionality and generate frequent false signals in trendless environments.

OBV (On-Balance Volume) is a cumulative volume indicator: it adds the day's volume when the closing price rises and subtracts it when the price falls. Its core concept is "volume precedes price." Within a lookback window of 30 5-minute candles:

• When the price makes a new low but OBV does not, it signals a bullish divergence, triggering a full buy.
• When the price makes a new high but OBV does not, it signals a bearish divergence, triggering a full sell.

Best risk-return profile: VWAP Mean Reversion (Sharpe 1.76). ATR Breakout (alpha +4.96%, max drawdown only -2.64%). It is recommended to prioritize mean reversion and classic technical strategies. 

This article is excerpted from exclusive research reports provided to VIP users weekly. To read the full report, please upgrade to VIP and view it on our official website. https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605437591

Disclaimer: This report is for research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Investors should assess risks independently.