卫冕还是新王登基？世界杯决赛，AI们竟站到同一边

Original: Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

At 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 20, the 2026 World Cup final will determine the ultimate champion between Argentina and Spain. On one side is Argentina, attempting to defend their title and achieve a second consecutive World Cup victory. On the other is Spain, who has maintained stability throughout the tournament and reached the final with an almost impenetrable defense.

Spain's path to the final has demonstrated remarkable stability. After the knockout stage began, they defeated Austria, Portugal, Belgium, and France consecutively, maintaining firm control over the game's rhythm against multiple strong opponents. Especially in the semi-final against France, Spain did not give Mbappe's forward line much space for counter-attacks, ultimately advancing with a 2-0 victory. Conceding only one goal in seven matches and keeping six clean sheets, their solid defense and strong midfield control have become the foundation of their confidence.

Argentina's path to the final has been fraught with danger and comebacks. After entering the knockout stage, they have barely won any match easily. Against Cape Verde and Egypt, Argentina narrowly won 3-2. In the quarter-final against Switzerland, they only scored consecutive goals at the end of extra time. In the semi-final against England, they were still trailing in the 85th minute but relied on Messi's consecutive assists, with Enzo and Lautaro completing the comeback.

Furthermore, this final also has a story line straight out of a movie script.

During a charity photo shoot in 2007, a young Messi held Yamal, who was still a baby, bathing him. No one back then could have imagined that nearly 20 years later, the two would face off for the first time in their professional careers in a World Cup final.

Now, Messi is 39 years old, and Yamal has just turned 19. One may be playing his final World Cup match, while the other stands at the threshold of his own era. An old photo spanning nearly 20 years adds a layer of passing-the-torch symbolism to this final.

Before the AIs predict who will lift the World Cup trophy, let's first review their performances in the two semi-finals (Related reading: Semi-final AI Prediction Showdown: France a sure thing? England-Argentina outcome in doubt).

Semi-Final Upsets for Most, Gemini Correct on Both

In the World Cup quarter-finals, all six AIs correctly predicted France, Spain, England, and Argentina would advance. But in the semi-finals, the AIs' overall prediction performance was somewhat lackluster.

For France vs. Spain, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen not only unanimously favored France to advance but also all predicted a 2-1 victory for France. Five models believed France could exploit the space left by Spain's advancing full-backs and resolve the match with quick counter-attacks. However, France never managed to execute the anticipated counter-attacks, instead being firmly controlled by Spain's rhythm, ultimately losing 0-2. The only one to choose Spain, Gemini, correctly predicted the advancing team but foresaw the match going to a penalty shootout, also missing the exact process.

For England vs. Argentina, the six AIs were split evenly. Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen supported England, while ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favored Argentina. In the end, Argentina completed a 2-1 comeback. The three models supporting Argentina all guessed the correct advancing direction, with only Gemini also predicting the exact scoreline.

After the two semi-finals, Gemini was the only model to correctly pick both finalists, delivering the most accurate predictions of this round. However, looking ahead to the ultimate championship match, all six AIs are once again on the same side.

Final Sees Consensus Again, All 6 AIs Favor Spain

Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Final: Argentina vs. Spain" prediction event, the probability of Argentina winning is currently 27%; a draw is 32%; and Spain winning is 43%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, Spain's probability of winning the title is 59%, while Argentina's is 41%.

The probabilities from the prediction market are relatively close, but the stance of the six AIs is highly aligned. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen all favor Spain to win the title.

Why do the AIs unanimously predict Spain will win?

The reasons for the AIs' confidence in Spain are highly consistent: defense, midfield control, and energy reserves.

Spain's most compelling advantage is their almost impenetrable defense in this World Cup. Conceding only one goal in the first seven matches, they successively neutralized Portugal, Belgium, and France after entering the knockout stage. While Argentina possesses stronger offensive firepower, facing Spain's compact formation makes it difficult for them to find the same open counter-attacking space they enjoyed previously.

Midfield control will dictate the likely rhythm of the match. Rodri orchestrates attacks, Olmo constantly moves into advanced half-spaces, and Yamal can consistently stretch Argentina's defense on the flanks. Argentina excels at compacting the center and then quickly launching attacks through Messi, Alvarez, and Lautaro, but Spain has the ability to reduce transition moments through prolonged possession, making it hard for Argentina to settle into their most comfortable rhythm.

Energy reserves are another variable commonly mentioned by the AIs. Spain finished their semi-final a day earlier than Argentina and advanced with relative ease. In contrast, Argentina played a full 120 minutes against Switzerland and then battled England deep into stoppage time. If the match is dragged into extra time, Spain's younger squad and greater depth for rotation could become a decisive advantage in determining the champion.

5 AIs Do Not Favor Spain Winning Within 90 Minutes

Although they are completely united on the champion, the six models have different opinions on exactly how Spain will win the match.

Gemini, the best performer in the semi-finals, predicts a 1-1 draw in regular time, a stalemate continuing into extra time, and the champion ultimately decided by a penalty shootout, with Spain emerging victorious in the end.

ChatGPT, Grok, and Qwen give similar predictions, all three leaning towards a 1-1 draw in regular time. Argentina has the capability to equalize relying on Messi's organization and forward efficiency, but entering extra time, Spain's superior energy and squad depth will gradually become apparent, with them completing the decisive goal in the 30 minutes of extra time.

Claude does not predict a specific scoreline but believes the match will be locked in a low-scoring range (1-1, 1-0, 0-0). It emphasizes the cautious atmosphere of the final, predicting both sides will maintain parity for long periods until a single set piece, counter-attack, or individual brilliance breaks the deadlock.

DeepSeek is the only one that leans towards Spain finishing the match within 90 minutes. It favors Spain to continue their defensive performance from previous matches, limiting Argentina's attack, and winning directly 2-0 or 2-1.

Before the semi-finals, five AIs unanimously bet on France advancing, only to be collectively proven wrong by Spain's 2-0 dominant victory. This time, will Spain realize the advantage of their overall strength, or will Argentina once again drag the match into their familiar territory of adversity and find an opportunity for a comeback?