BitMart Research Weekly Hot Topics: Global Liquidity Focuses on AI Narrative, Crypto Market Consolidates on Sidelines

1. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets

1.1 Easing Tensions in the Middle East: Phased Removal of Tail Risk

Last week, markets were highly concerned about an escalation between the US and Iran. President Trump even canceled his attendance at his child's wedding, the Pentagon's pizza index abnormally spiked, and the market broadly entered a pricing phase of "imminent war," with oil prices surging and global risk assets under significant pressure. However, the situation then showed signs of rapid de-escalation. The two parties eventually reached a preliminary framework agreement and agreed to extend the negotiation window by approximately 60 days. The tail risk of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East has been temporarily removed.

With the recovery in risk sentiment, US stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hitting new cyclical highs. From the current perspective, geopolitics appears to be shifting from the previous "maximum pressure" towards a "long-term stalemate." The market generally believes that large-scale military action is now a low-probability event, and subsequent developments will likely focus on ongoing negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, security arrangements, and sanctions. In the absence of new unexpected events, the disruptive impact of geopolitics on risk assets is expected to gradually diminish.

1.2 AI Tech Stocks: Bubble in the Middle-to-Late Stage, but Short-Term Trend Still Strong

Currently, global risk assets remain driven by the AI narrative. US, Japanese, and South Korean stock markets continue to strengthen. Notably, the South Korean market maintains an obvious uptrend, led by the AI supply chain including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Internal discussions within the market regarding the stage of the AI bubble have also begun to heat up significantly.

After evaluating multiple indicators referencing the Nasdaq bubble period of 2000, some quantitative institutions believe that AI tech stocks have now entered the middle-to-late stage of a bubble. Models suggest that over the next approximately 3 months, AI tech stocks may still sustain an uptrend with low drawdowns, and average potential returns remain considerable. However, the risk-reward ratio over the next 1–3 years is beginning to deteriorate significantly, with the probability of high volatility and deep drawdowns increasing.

Nevertheless, the biggest difference compared to the 2000 internet bubble is that the current AI infrastructure itself hasn't shown obvious overcapacity. Sectors such as computing power, storage, bandwidth, and energy are still in a phase of continuous expansion. Therefore, the industry's fundamentals remain relatively strong; the genuine bubble exists more in the valuation of secondary markets. The current market has already priced in several years of future earnings expectations. The valuations of many AI leaders already correspond to growth expectations over the next 2–5 years. If subsequent earnings disappoint, or if capital expenditure pressures exceed cash flow capabilities, market volatility could significantly amplify.

1.3 SpaceX IPO & Q4 AI Bubble Stress Test

The market is starting to focus on several potential key risk nodes, including the continuous expansion of capital expenditures by tech giants, future IPOs of high-valuation AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, and SpaceX's upcoming large-scale IPO in June.

Among these, SpaceX could become one of the largest IPOs in history. The market estimates its valuation could reach $1.5–2 trillion, with a fundraising amount of approximately $75 billion. Although its long-term narratives like space data centers and Mars colonization have enormous potential, the company is currently still in a state of continuous losses, and xAI is burning cash rapidly. Therefore, the market is essentially valuing it based on a "deep out-of-the-money call option" logic, rather than traditional cash flow models.

If SpaceX's listing creates a significant liquidity suction effect, it could prematurely trigger a phase of adjustment in AI tech stocks. The market generally believes that starting from the end of Q3, the risk-reward ratio for AI tech stocks will significantly worsen, and Q4 could enter a phase of high volatility and sharp swings. However, in the current context where global funds are highly concentrated on the AI narrative, the AI supply chain remains the strongest consensus for capital allocation in the short term.

1.4 Potential Fed Framework Changes: Future Volatility May Rise Again

The content of Kevin Warsh's recent testimony has also drawn market attention. Based on his statements, some of his views show significant divergence from the Fed's framework under Powell in the past, including opposition to the traditional QE/QT framework, downplaying forward guidance, and emphasizing the market's own punishment and reward mechanisms.

Market concerns are rising that if the future Fed gradually weakens its active smoothing of market volatility, the VIX, which has been suppressed over the past few years, could rebound. Additionally, the market is starting to pay attention to whether the US might adjust its inflation statistical framework in the future. If real inflation trends upward again while the Fed's response lags, the bond market might price in the risk of "the Fed falling behind the inflation curve" ahead of time.

Overall, market expectations for decreased Fed policy transparency and a renewed amplification of volatility are strengthening.

2. Crypto Market

2.1 BTC Range-Bound with Bearish Bias; Market Funds Still Concentrated on AI Assets

Although the easing of geopolitical risks has driven a rebound in global risk assets, the overall performance of the Crypto market remains notably weaker than that of AI tech stocks. Currently, the main capital flow in the market is still concentrated in the AI supply chain, with no visible signs of "profits from AI flowing over into Crypto."

The trend changes can also be observed from the recent strategic layouts of major exchanges. Areas including Prediction Markets, US stock contracts, and AI-related assets are becoming new focal points, while the narrative heat for traditional altcoins continues to decline. In this cycle, the capital relationship between Crypto and AI is clearly different from previous bull runs. The market has not formed a significant liquidity spillover effect, leading to overall cautious sentiment towards small and mid-cap altcoin assets.

2.2 ETF & Derivatives Data: Market Sentiment Turns Weaker Again

ETF flows continue to weaken. This week saw a net outflow of approximately $1.18 billion from BTC ETFs, accompanied by a simultaneous decline in overall trading volume, indicating a decrease in institutional risk appetite.

Regarding on-chain and derivatives data, BTC Open Interest has declined in tandem with the price drop. The Funding Rate has turned positive again after being significantly negative previously, as some short positions begin to close. However, spot CVD remains weak, and the recovery in aggressive buying pressure is limited.

Market sentiment in the options market has turned bearish again. The Deribit Skew has risen back to around 16%, with the premium on Put options returning to relatively extreme levels, indicating a significant increase in market demand for hedging. Overall, the current Crypto market still lacks new incremental capital inflows as a driving force.

2.3 MicroStrategy Continues Accumulation; ETH Retains Tech Narrative

This week, MicroStrategy is suspected of adding approximately 30,000 BTC to its holdings again, bringing its total holdings close to 840,000 BTC. Compared to its previous pace, its recent buying intensity has increased noticeably. Some market views suggest that it is essentially betting on the long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit.

Although ETH's price performance has been weaker than BTC recently, it still retains some "tech asset" attributes, including the potential for synergy between its on-chain ecosystem and innovations in AI and smart contracts. Therefore, some institutional capital continues to allocate to it. For instance, BMNR increased its holdings by approximately 70,000 ETH this week.

In comparison, BTC is currently more of a macro asset, while ETH retains some of the tech growth narrative.

2.4 Long-Term Perspective: After the AI Bubble Unwinds, Crypto May See a True Opportunity

The biggest characteristic of the current market is still the "AI narrative dominating alone." Whether it's traditional stocks, altcoins, or most risk assets, they are all experiencing a continuous liquidity drain to the AI sector.

Some market participants believe that the truly suitable time for large-scale allocation to Crypto might be after AI tech stocks undergo a systemic "valuation reset." If an AI bubble burst occurs, BTC could also experience a significant drawdown simultaneously, but that phase might paradoxically form an important bottom area for a new Crypto cycle.

Overall, we are currently still in the phase where AI dominates global liquidity, and the Crypto market temporarily lacks an independent narrative for a primary uptrend.

This article is purely market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment risks are high. Before trading, please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management.