血赚240万，这9个内幕地址最懂美伊战争

Original author: Mahe, Foresight News

On May 18, Bubblemaps founder Nicolas Vaiman and head of investigations Deebs (a former US military officer, real name withheld for security reasons) disclosed to the public that they had discovered nine highly correlated anonymous accounts on Polymarket. These accounts collectively netted over $2.4 million from prediction markets related to US military operations, with a win rate as high as 98%.

Bubblemaps provided a detailed analysis of these accounts on Twitter. They almost exclusively bet on military events related to the 2026 US-Iran conflict, with an eerily precise timing—often placing bets just days before key operations occurred, preferring long-shot options with low odds.

This is not simply "good luck." By visualizing transactions for the market "US will strike Iran for the first time before February 28" on Polymarket, Bubblemaps uncovered a massive pink cluster that no one had mentioned on X platform before.

After further tracking, they linked the initial 4 accounts to another 5 through time windows, trade sizes, and fund flow paths. The fund flow paths of all nine accounts were highly consistent: funds were transferred from centralized exchanges into a shared wallet network within an extremely short timeframe, allegedly using professional services to conceal traces.

4 Core Accounts Each Earned $400,000

In the early morning of February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched large-scale joint strikes under the codenames "Operation Epic Fury" and "Operation Lion's Roar." Within 12 hours, US and Israeli forces carried out nearly 900 strikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile bases, military command centers, and hideouts of senior leaders. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, several of his family members, and senior Revolutionary Guard commanders were killed in the initial strikes.

As early as the day of the strikes on February 28, Bubblemaps publicly flagged six "fresh" accounts. Most of these accounts were created and funded within 24 hours before the strikes, precisely betting on "US will strike Iran before February 28," collectively netting approximately $1 million (some reports say $1.2 million). The market odds at the time were extremely low, yet these accounts placed heavy bets. Bubblemaps called it "suspected insider trading."

Five months later, the cluster of nine accounts they discovered was larger in scale and boasted a higher win rate.

The four core accounts were created a few days before February 28, each earning approximately $400,000; the subsequent five accounts were linked through fund flows and transaction overlaps. The nine accounts placed over 80 bets in total, nearly all wagering on US military operations: the first strike on February 28, the exact timing of Khamenei's elimination, the announcement of a ceasefire, etc. They even distributed bets across multiple dates to maximize profits while occasionally placing a few small losing bets (e.g., February 20), likely to disguise their activities.

Bubblemaps listed nine Polymarket wallet addresses (e.g., 0x09d3273fa76282ce09f4f35a87d6f087c05f4e84) and emphasized that these accounts consistently dominated the profit-and-loss rankings. The funds ultimately flowed into a shared wallet network, revealing traces of professional money laundering or service usage.

Vaiman stated bluntly: "Luck cannot explain these numbers." Deebs added that the potential sources of insider information are numerous—government officials, military planners, intelligence analysts, and even military family members.

Earlier this year, US Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was accused of using classified intelligence to bet on a Venezuela special operation on Polymarket. He invested $34,000, profited $400,000, quickly withdrew the funds, and tried to delete his account. Polymarket cooperated actively with law enforcement, ultimately leading to the indictment. The Van Dyke case is considered a landmark example of insider trading in prediction markets.

In contrast, the profit from this nine-account cluster is six times larger, with a higher win rate, and is entirely concentrated on US-Iran military events.

Bubblemaps shared its findings exclusively with "60 Minutes," and the episode aired on the evening of May 17, garnering significant attention. CBS reported that Polymarket has established AI monitoring and blockchain forensics systems, notifying law enforcement whenever suspicious activity is detected, emphasizing that "insider trading is not welcome on the platform."

As of press time, Bubblemaps has not directly linked the nine accounts to any specific entity or government department, merely stating that "the correlation and near-perfect win rate raise serious suspicions."

Anti-Insider Trading and Copy-Insider Trading

Insider trading makes many market participants feel unfairly disadvantaged. Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are taking more measures to combat insider trading.

At the end of March this year, Polymarket updated its market integrity rules for its DeFi platform and its US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The updated rules clearly define three core types of prohibited insider trading:

• Trading using stolen confidential information—if a participant possesses confidential information regarding the outcome or potential outcome of an underlying event, and using that information would violate a pre-existing duty of trust or confidentiality owed to another person or entity, the participant may not trade any contracts.
• Prohibition on trading using illegal inside information—participants may not trade using confidential information provided to them by another party, if that information was provided by someone who owed a pre-existing duty of trust or confidentiality to another party, and the participant knows or has reason to know that the person providing the information would themselves be prohibited from trading on it.
• Trading by persons who can influence the outcome—if a participant has the authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event, they may not participate in any trading of contracts.

However, rules always have loopholes. Since insider trading cannot be completely eradicated, some so-called "insider copy-trading projects" have also become controversial. These applications compile trading accounts with abnormally high win rates for users, or flag suspiciously timed or unusually sized trades, allowing users to copy these trades with one click.

Kreo's selling point is helping users "find insider traders earlier than others," while Polycool directly posts a "Polymarket Insider Trading Guide" on its official website, stating, "This is not the stock market. Betting with non-public information won't land you in jail. The rules of decentralized prediction markets are completely different."

The question then arises: Is copying insider trading addresses a violation?

Currently, the official response has not been provided.

However, so-called "insider copy-trading platforms" like PolyGUN and Polycule were hacked earlier this year, suffering losses ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars.