Institutions have such divergent valuations for HYPE? From $40 to $360

小飞

Odaily资深作者

2026-05-21 07:44

บทความนี้มีประมาณ 3095 คำ การอ่านทั้งหมดใช้เวลาประมาณ 5 นาที

The digital divide stems from different valuation logics.

สรุปโดย AI

ขยาย

Key Point: There is a significant divergence in market valuation surrounding Hyperliquid's token HYPE: conservatives believe $40-$60 reflects its current revenue-generating capacity; the bull case range sees it at $100-$150; super bulls aggressively project $180-$360, benchmarking against global exchanges, arguing the narrative ceiling is far from reached.
Key Elements:
1. HYPE's current market cap is approximately $14.4 billion, with an FDV of around $56.7 billion. There is a fundamental disagreement in valuation logic, ranging from a "perp DEX" to a "global trading infrastructure."
2. Arthur Hayes predicts a target price of $150 for HYPE by August 2026. His core logic is that HYPE acts as a "cash flow machine," returning revenue to token holders through continuous buybacks, similar to an exchange rather than a traditional altcoin.
3. Research firm DCo's bear-case valuation model suggests HYPE should be worth $60. Their logic is that Hyperliquid's revenue scale has reached 15% of CME's, but its valuation is far lower than CME's, and it does not account for HIP-3 and future multi-asset trading network potential.
4. Coinpedia uses a long-term compounding model to predict HYPE could reach $185 by 2030. Core logic includes the expansion of perpetual trading volume, growth of the HyperEVM ecosystem, and an effective buyback mechanism.
5. Market consensus suggests that HYPE's price still has significant room to run towards its narrative ceiling. Institutions (like 21Shares) have observed that Hyperliquid possesses on-chain price discovery capabilities when traditional markets are closed, pre-pricing geopolitical conflicts and crude oil market shocks.

Hyperliquid is undoubtedly one of the hottest assets in the crypto world recently. Its token, HYPE, has been on a strong upward trajectory, now trading above $56.

Based on a circulating supply of approximately 254 million tokens, its market cap stands at around $14.4 billion. Calculated against its maximum supply of 1 billion tokens, the FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) is approximately $56.7 billion.

Some believe it has already become too expensive, with no shortage of whales voting with their feet by taking heavy short positions. Others think this is just the beginning, even using Robinhood Markets, CME Group, and Nasdaq as benchmarks for comparison.

The valuation logic for crypto projects is usually clear: L1 chains are valued by ecosystem, DeFi by TVL, Meme coins by sentiment and traffic, and exchange tokens by fees and buybacks. But HYPE is a composite. It is both a perpetual DEX and its own chain and ecosystem. It possesses the attributes of a platform token while generating real cash flow. It resembles BNB yet increasingly ventures into the traditional financial world, operating like a global exchange.

So, what is HYPE truly worth?

Arthur Hayes: $150 | $38 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $150 Billion FDV

The most widely circulated HYPE price target currently comes from Arthur Hayes.

In March 2026, Arthur Hayes wrote in his article "$$HYPE Man": "My August 2026 target price for $$HYPE is $150," seeing it reach $150 by August.

The core logic behind Arthur Hayes's figure is not simply based on trading volume growth, but his belief that Hyperliquid has become one of the few true "cash flow machines" within the crypto industry. He also stated in the article: "No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid."

He suggests Hyperliquid resembles an exchange that continuously buys back its own shares, rather than a traditional altcoin.

DCo: $60 | $15.2 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $60 Billion FDV

Compared to Arthur Hayes's aggressive stance, research firm DCo represents a more traditional valuation analysis perspective.

On March 13, 2026, a Hyperliquid valuation model published by DCo was widely shared. It mentioned: "HYPE's current price of $37 has fallen below the bear market target price of $60." This means that even under their most conservative "bear market valuation model," HYPE should be worth $60, and the current price is already approaching their prediction.

The core of DCo's logic is directly comparing Hyperliquid to the CME. They argue that Hyperliquid's revenue scale at the time had already reached nearly 15% of the CME's, yet its overall valuation was far lower. The market hasn't truly priced in future potentials like HIP-3, multi-asset trading, and the global liquidity network into HYPE's price.

Coincub (Conservative): $120 | $30.5 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $120 Billion FDV

Coincub (Bull): $300 | $76.2 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $300 Billion FDV

The model provided by research platform Coincub is divided into two versions based on crypto market trend forecasts.

The conservative version predicts a price range of $50–$120. Coincub's valuation logic is that Hyperliquid will gradually become the on-chain derivatives infrastructure and will continuously absorb trading volume from centralized exchanges. If the crypto bull market returns, they believe HYPE should rise to $180–$300.

They argue that Hyperliquid is not just an excellent DeFi protocol; it has already begun competing with global trading platforms like Binance and Coinbase, can attract institutional trader adoption, and enter the "global trading infrastructure" valuation framework.

CoinCodex: $100 | $25.4 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $100 Billion FDV

Quantitative prediction platform CoinCodex states on its prediction page that, according to its algorithmic model, HYPE is projected to reach $100 by February 2027, but its prediction range for 2026 remains concentrated between $41 and $56.

In CoinCodex's view, HYPE indeed has long-term growth potential, but the market has already priced in expectations in the short term.

Coinpedia: $185 | $47 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $185 Billion FDV

Coinpedia's HYPE prediction page gives a 2030 price range of $105–$185.

Its core logic is based on a long-term compound interest model: continuous expansion of Hyperliquid perp volume, growth of the HyperEVM ecosystem, sustained fee capture enhancement, and an effective long-term buyback mechanism.

3Commas: $45–$50 | $11.4–$12.7 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $45–$50 Billion FDV

In the TradingBeasts and WalletInvestor models aggregated by 3Commas, the predicted price for HYPE in 2026 remains concentrated between $45.2 and $49.6.

Their models lean more towards technical analysis and historical volatility prediction, without assigning much of a "global exchange premium" to Hyperliquid.

In other words, in their view, the current price has already reached a reasonable range.

Axel Bitblaze: $180–$360 | $45.7–$91.4 Billion Circulating Market Cap | $180–$360 Billion FDV

Beyond institutions and research models, increasingly aggressive super bulls are emerging on X.

Top crypto KOL Axel Bitblaze believes HYPE's fair price lies in the $180–$360 range, gaining significant traction and approval from his followers.

The core of his logic is that Hyperliquid will ultimately possess the platform attributes of Binance, the chain attributes of Solana, and the trading attributes of the CME simultaneously.

Where is HYPE's Valuation Ceiling?

Putting together all the clear price opinions from the past period reveals a layered market valuation for HYPE.

Many institutional views suggest that the $40–$60 range, corresponding to a ~$10–$15 billion circulating market cap and ~$40–$60 billion FDV, basically reflects Hyperliquid's current revenue capacity, implying the current price has peaked in the short term.

The bullish range sits between $100 and $150, corresponding to a ~$25–$38 billion circulating market cap and ~$100–$150 billion FDV.

The most aggressive super bulls have already started pushing HYPE towards $180–$360, corresponding to a FDV in the hundreds of billions.

Furthermore, while many institutions haven't given specific price predictions, they have published analyses suggesting HYPE should be repriced.

Matt Hougan once stated that the market is still pricing Hyperliquid as a crypto perp DEX, but what Hyperliquid aims to be is a global trading platform covering stocks, forex, commodities, and prediction markets.

21Shares wrote in its research: "Hyperliquid isn't just faster; it priced in this shock nearly 48 hours ahead of the traditional financial system."

Institutions are discovering that when traditional markets closed during geopolitical conflicts and crude oil market price discovery, Hyperliquid's on-chain contracts had already completed global pricing ahead of time.

This is why, starting from May, more and more institutions are no longer comparing Hyperliquid to UNI or dYdX, but instead to the CME, ICE, and Nasdaq.

This is the reason the market has been ignited. Regardless of short-term corrections, the market consensus is that HYPE's price still has significant room to grow before reaching its narrative ceiling.