As the World Cup approaches, sports are entering an era of "fractionalized finance"

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Planet Xiaohua

The World Cup is about to kick off, and beyond the prediction markets gearing up, another industry is quietly heating up.

Recently, FIFA announced a new rule: all players participating in the World Cup for the first time must wear a "debut patch" on their jerseys. This means even globally renowned superstars who have never set foot on a World Cup pitch, such as Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal, will need to wear this special insignia. Some national teams returning to the World Cup after many years may even require the entire squad to wear it.

This isn't just about adding a sense of ceremony for World Cup rookies. Those familiar with the sports card industry know that this patch will be removed, authenticated, cut, and then embedded into trading cards after the match. Ultimately, it could become a 1/1 debut autograph card, graded, auctioned, and traded, potentially fetching a price exceeding that of a supercar in the future.

Just this May, FIFA announced a long-term exclusive collectibles licensing partnership with Fanatics. The future World Cup-related trading cards, stickers, and collectibles ecosystem will officially enter the Fanatics/Topps era.

You might not collect sports cards, but it's worth noting that behind these small pieces of cardboard lies an alternative asset world valued at over a hundred billion dollars, boasting a massive secondary market and long-term bull and bear cycles.

At the same time, the entire sports world is entering a new era of "fragmented finance."

Sports Leagues "Monetizing History by Dismantling It"

Fans used to care about "a historic moment witnessed by a jersey," but now people might care about "how many pieces of history this jersey can be broken into."

After all, one jersey can belong to dozens of cards, hundreds of buyers, be resold countless times in the future, and even form a price curve that consistently rises or fluctuates wildly.

A piece of fabric can move from a player's chest into a card factory, into a blind box, into a grading agency, into an auction house, and finally become an alternative asset in some investment portfolio.

Football trading cards aren't new either. Since the 1970 World Cup, Panini has established the World Cup sticker and trading card system. Many fans' childhoods began with a World Cup sticker album.

However, it has never managed to build a mature, high-liquidity "sports financial asset system" like the NBA has.

Those unfamiliar with this might find it strange. Football has the largest global fanbase, and its superstars hold immense commercial value. Yet, the prices, liquidity, and depth of the secondary market for football cards have long been incomparable to the NBA's.

The reason behind this is that the NBA is inherently better suited for "assetization," while football lacks a highly unified, commercially operated system like the NBA that continuously manufactures emotion and scarcity.

Basketball is a sport of extreme individualism. Superstars win games with last-second shots, data systems are standardized, the league's narrative is unified, and the American industry excels at creating stars. From draft night, debut, All-Star game, MVP, playoffs, to the championship, every milestone can be packaged as an asset.

The football world is too fragmented. National teams, leagues, clubs, the Champions League, sponsors, and copyright systems are all disconnected, making it difficult to form the unified and sustained financial narrative that the NBA provides.

It's easy to understand that the World Cup patch mentioned at the beginning is FIFA's active attempt to create "financial raw materials" for high-value trading cards in the future.

The NBA Took 70 Years to Turn Paper into a Financial Asset

Many in the crypto world might have learned about trading cards during the NFT boom, but the NBA trading card market has been active for over 70 years.

In 1948, Bowman released the first NBA player cards. In 1986, Fleer launched the Michael Jordan rookie card that would later change the entire industry. During the 90s, fueled by the Jordan era and the NBA's global expansion, the trading card market experienced its first wave of mass frenzy. Almost every mall, convenience store, and toy store in America was selling cards.

But soon, the industry faced its first major crash.

In the late 90s, numerous publishers massively overproduced cards, leading to an uncontrolled supply and a prolonged bear market. This period later became known in the collecting community as the "Junk Wax Era."

The industry was transformed by the "scarcity revolution" post-2000.

In 2003, LeBron James entered the NBA. That same year, Upper Deck launched the Exquisite series, thoroughly introducing concepts like autographs, jersey patches, serial numbering, and 1/1 cards into the high-end card market.

From that point on, trading cards began evolving into an alternative financial asset.

They started having clear serial numbers, scarcity levels, long-term price trajectories, grading systems, auction platforms, professional market makers, and a vast secondary market.

During the pandemic, grading agencies like PSA and BGS rose to prominence. Auction platforms like eBay, Goldin, and PWCC matured. Breakers started live-streaming box breaks, and the entire industry gradually formed a complete ecosystem.

The scale of this market is far beyond imagination. According to 2025 data, the global sports trading card market has reached approximately $11.5 billion. Basketball cards remain the most profitable core category, while autograph and patch cards are the fastest-growing high-end assets.

Meanwhile, grading companies have even become true "platform businesses."

In 2025, PSA's parent company, Collectors, completed the acquisition of Beckett (BGS's parent company), pushing the entire industry towards greater financialization and centralization.

Over the past few years, grading companies have functionally become very similar to the "asset issuance layer" in Crypto. PSA's 2024 annual revenue exceeded $300 million. In today's trading card world, whether a piece of paper goes from $500 to $5000 often depends solely on whether it ends up sealed inside a PSA plastic slab.

Furthermore, numerous specialized physical "exchanges" for trading cards have emerged globally. CardsHQ in Atlanta, USA, is often called the "world's largest trading card store" by media. It's not just a store; it's a large-scale financial entertainment hub blending live-streamed box breaks, auctions, KOL influence, community, and trading.

Today's NBA trading card market is actually very close to the Crypto world.

It has stood the test of time, featuring long-term bull and bear cycles, massive secondary liquidity, long-term "diamond hands," KOLs promoting cards, and emotional trading betting on the next GOAT.

Many sports card break communities operate like meme communities. The streamers set the pace, the community shouts buys, they gamble on rookies, speculate on scarcity narratives, and experience FOMO when opening boxes...

Collective Emotion Can Become an Asset

What gives this market sustained liquidity and makes it financeable ultimately relies on "narrative," just like any other asset.

In June of last year, a 2024 Topps Now Stephen Curry Paris Olympics 1/1 autograph card sold for $518,500 at Goldin Auctions.

This card was valuable because it was tied to a specific moment. During the 2024 Paris Olympics men's basketball final, Curry hit several crucial three-pointers and made the iconic "night-night" gesture towards the French team.

So, a card's price is deeply linked to the "narrative moment" surrounding it. That shot, that game, that celebration, the emotion of "I witnessed history firsthand."

However, this price isn't excessive in the top-tier trading card market. In 2021, Curry's Rookie Logoman Autograph 1/1 sold for $5.9 million.

This is the most profound change in the sports collectibles market over the past few years. Prices are no longer strictly bound by absolute time or scarcity but are defined by different "story valuations."

This follows the same logic as the wildly popular prediction markets. On Polymarket, we trade on whether Trump will be elected, if Bitcoin can hit a new high, or if a particular movie will win an Oscar.

In the trading card market, they trade on whether Lamine Yamal will become the next king of football, if Haaland can win the World Cup, or if a certain rookie will become the future GOAT.

Prediction markets sell "outcome probabilities," while trading cards sell "historical ownership." Essentially, both are about pre-pricing collective emotions.

What NFTs Couldn't Achieve

Crypto natives burned by NFTs might find this chain of "turning emotion into assets" familiar.

But NFT projects all face the same unsolvable problem: a lack of ability to continuously produce "new stories."

A profile picture project can be very popular for a while after minting, but once the hype fades, the project team can only resort to constantly manufacturing new roadmaps, new airdrops, new collaborations, and new utilities to barely sustain market consensus.

After an infinite loop, they end up launching new projects until no one is left to buy in.

But sports are different. Sports are the world's perpetual motion machine for "emotion production."

It automatically updates its storyline every single day, never ending. Someone hits a game-winner, someone gets injured, someone seeks revenge, someone retires, someone becomes a legend overnight, someone rises from the bench to stardom.

Its narratives aren't fabricated by project teams; they are continuously generated by the real world.

I've always enjoyed watching the UFC. Dana White is one of the best sports promoters of the past decade when it comes to understanding "attention finance."

UFC doesn't just sell tickets to fights; it sells rivalries, trash talk, revenge storylines, underdog triumphs, and dynastic falls. It's about escalating emotions and dramatic stories.

People won't pay for "boxing statistics," but they will always pay for a "narrative."

In fact, the NBA has been the same way for years.

On one hand, veteran fans constantly complain about the league's "entertainment-ization" – controversial officiating, superstar team-ups, drama, league hype, an increasingly scripted feel. But on the other hand, it's undeniable that the NBA's influence and commercial value among young people are stronger than ever.

The Financialization of Sports Leagues

The logic of sports consumption, and even the entire entertainment industry's consumption, has changed.

Many young people might not watch entire games, but they will watch trash talk, memes, clips on short video platforms, player personas, social media drama, and post-game interviews.

Sports are increasingly becoming a large-scale, never-ending reality show IP. Trading cards serve as the most direct financial outlet for these emotions.

During the NFT bull run, project teams also loudly proclaimed that Web3 would redefine sports collectibles. But looking at it now, it's the traditional sports leagues that have truly achieved "assetization" first. This is because they possess something Web3 lacks: real people, real games, real collective emotional consensus.

In today's world of financializing everything, sports are not just the perpetual motion machine manufacturing "future history," but are also becoming a platform for issuing financial assets.