BitMart Research Weekly Focus: China-US Summit Sets the Tone for Stabilization, Parallel Developments in Crypto Regulatory Breakthroughs and Market Pullback

I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1.1 The Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: Stabilization, Not Normalization

Trump visited Beijing from May 14-15 to meet with Xi Jinping, accompanied by entrepreneurs including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang. The market had high expectations for a substantive breakthrough in US-China trade relations, but the final outcome fell short overall. Public-facing achievements were primarily limited to Boeing aircraft orders and verbal promises from the Chinese side to purchase certain agricultural products. No significant substantive concessions were made on core issues such as Taiwan and Iran.

A more valuable behind-the-scenes outcome was that, following the summit, the US approved exports of Nvidia H200 AI chips to approximately 10 Chinese tech companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com. This effectively reopened a sales channel to China that had been largely closed. However, the approvals were limited solely to the H200 model, not newer versions, representing a limited relaxation overall.

Market reaction saw an initial uptick followed by a decline. US stock indices hit new highs before the summit, but after the results were disclosed, profit-taking emerged, with the Nasdaq and AI-related chip stocks seeing a notable correction. Overall, this summit was closer to "stabilization" than "normalization," and substantive relief on US-China tariffs and technology restrictions remains distant.

1.2 Iran Negotiations Collapse and High Oil Price Volatility

On May 11, Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal, calling it "unacceptable." Iran's proposal involved demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz, security guarantees, compensation, and the lifting of sanctions. This differed significantly from core US requirements, leading the market to reprice Middle East supply risks. Oil prices subsequently jumped, with both Brent and WTI maintaining high levels, limiting short-term downside potential for oil given the Strait of Hormuz restrictions and the negotiating impasse.

However, as of May 18, a brief diplomatic window appeared. Trump stated he had postponed a large-scale military strike on Iran, as Gulf allies believed a peace deal was still possible. Oil prices retreated slightly as a result, but Middle East risks have not yet dissipated, and the pattern of high oil prices suppressing global risk appetite continues.

1.3 AI Tech Stocks: Short-Term Correction, Medium-to-Long Term Divergence

In the short term, this week's correction in AI tech stocks is primarily due to weaker-than-expected summit results, rising treasury yields, and profit-taking after significant prior gains. This is more of a technical correction rather than a reversal of fundamentals. The lifting of the ban on H200 exports to China is a tangible positive for Nvidia. The key follow-up will focus on the pace of license implementation and actual shipment volumes.

Another short-term risk stems from the potential IPO of SpaceX and expectations of its rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. If SpaceX is quickly added to the index after its IPO, passive funds may need to sell some existing heavyweight stocks to make room for the new component, creating temporary liquidity pressure on leading tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

In the medium term, the July earnings season will be an important verification window for AI tech stocks. The market's pricing logic is shifting from narrative-driven to hard data-driven. Investors will focus more on AI input-output ratios, commercialization efficiency, and profit realization capabilities. The valuation regime is entering its second half, and assets driven solely by narrative will face greater pressure.

In the long term, year-end could be a critical test phase for the AI bubble. If high-valuation AI application companies like OpenAI or Anthropic push forward with IPOs, it could drain liquidity from the secondary market. If corporate capital expenditures continue to exceed cash flow and rely on debt to sustain investment, AI stocks may enter a stress-test phase typical of late-stage bubbles. The current value capture within the AI industry chain continues to rotate along the "compute power → bandwidth → storage → energy consumption" sequence, with the strong performance of the storage sector reflecting this logic.

II. Crypto Market Conditions and Ecosystem

2.1 Market Overview: BTC Declines, ETF Inflow Trend Broken

BTC fell from approximately $82,000 to around $77,000 this week, primarily impacted by unmet expectations from the US-China summit, rising oil prices, and a decline in global risk appetite. ETH performed even weaker during the same period, with the ETH/BTC ratio declining further, indicating capital still favors BTC rather than actively rotating into major altcoins.

A significant turning point occurred in ETF fund flows. The US spot Bitcoin ETF ended its previous seven-week streak of net inflows, recording approximately $1 billion in net outflows over the past week. This included a single-day outflow of about $635 million on May 13, one of the largest single-day outflows in recent months. It's noteworthy that IBIT also saw significant outflows that day, so this cannot be simply interpreted as redemptions limited to smaller ETFs. However, BlackRock's IBIT remains one of the core products within the long-term allocation landscape.

The $78,000–$80,000 range is currently the core support zone for BTC. If this range holds, there is still room for bullish sentiment to recover; if it breaks down effectively, short-term risk appetite could weaken further.

2.2 Regulatory Breakthrough: CLARITY Act Enters Critical Phase

The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15 to 9 on May 14, garnering support from some Democratic senators, indicating a degree of bipartisan foundation. This bill aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital asset market structure and has advanced to a full Senate vote, representing significant progress for US digital asset legislation.

If subsequent legislative progress is smooth, the compliance path for US digital assets will become clearer. Institutional demand previously postponed due to regulatory uncertainty could be gradually unleashed. Regulatory clarity will become an important variable providing medium-to-long term support for the Crypto market.

2.3 Circle, Stablecoins, and the Trend of Institutional Chains

Circle's recent market performance remains a focus. Its financial results show divergence, but the token pre-sale for the Arc blockchain was a core highlight. Arc completed approximately $222 million in funding, corresponding to a valuation of around $3 billion. Investors included institutions such as a16z crypto, BlackRock, Apollo, ICE, and ARK Invest. Arc is positioned as an institutional-grade Layer-1 blockchain for stablecoin settlement, cross-border payments, and tokenized assets.

Circle is thus forming a dual-track model: "Listed Entity + Self-Built Chain + Token Issuance." On one hand, it gains compliance endorsement and access to traditional capital markets through its public company status. On the other hand, it captures Crypto market liquidity and enjoys a dual premium from both equity and token valuations through its chain and token.

This model has already established a demonstration effect. Going forward, projects with payment scenarios, user bases, or social ecosystems may follow similar paths. Stablecoin infrastructure, institution-built blockchains, and compliant payment networks remain among the most structurally supported directions in the current Crypto market.

This article is market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risks. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.