加密IPO寒冬降临？Consensys与Ledger按下暂停键

Original author: Ma He, Foresight News

On May 14, MetaMask wallet developer Consensys temporarily postponed its IPO to as early as this fall. Meanwhile, crypto hardware wallet giant Ledger also paused its US IPO plans on May 13. Previously, exchange Kraken had repeatedly delayed its listing plans. This series of IPO postponements and pauses signals that after the 2025 boom in crypto company listings, the IPO window in 2026 is narrowing significantly.

2025 was regarded by the industry as a "bumper year for IPOs": stablecoin issuer Circle successfully listed on the NYSE, Bullish, Gemini, and several other companies completed their listings, and exit channels for crypto VCs were initially opened. In 2025, crypto-related IPOs raised approximately $14.6 billion, with total VC transaction volume surging to $19.7 billion. Bitcoin prices once soared to an all-time high of $126,000, institutional funds poured in, and the relatively favorable regulatory environment drove strong first-day performances for multiple crypto stocks.

Entering 2026, Bitcoin prices experienced a significant correction, trading volumes declined, and investor risk appetite for crypto stocks rapidly cooled. BitGo, the first crypto IPO of 2026, listed in January at a price of $18. Although it briefly rose on its first day, it subsequently fell back, dropping to $7 at one point before recovering to $11.9.

Specifically, the listing pace of multiple leading companies has significantly slowed. Kraken's parent company, Payward, confidentially filed a Form S-1 in November 2025, initially planning to proceed in the first quarter of 2026 with a valuation targeting $20 billion. On March 18 this year, the company paused plans due to "difficult market conditions." Co-CEO Arjun Sethi stated that while the valuation dropped to $13.3 billion in a recent funding round, the IPO filing is still valid, and the company is waiting for the optimal window.

Arjun Sethi

Ledger's pause was more abrupt. The company, known for its hardware wallets and enterprise-level infrastructure, was reported by media in January 2026 to have hired investment banks to prepare for a US listing, targeting a valuation of $4 billion. Citing sources familiar with the matter, Ledger decided to pause due to unfavorable market conditions and did not initiate a formal filing process. A company spokesperson declined to comment but indicated a possible shift to private fundraising to sustain growth.

Notably, as recently as March, Ledger appointed former Circle executive John Andrews as CFO and opened an office in New York, strengthening its US business presence. This expansion suggests its business strategy remains unchanged, with the pause in listing being more a result of external pressures.

Meanwhile, MetaMask parent company Consensys has also joined the wait-and-see crowd. The company had hired JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs as underwriters, originally planning to file its Form S-1 around the end of February with a target listing in 2026. However, due to market weakness, Consensys has postponed its IPO to at least this fall.

Behind these crypto company IPO pauses is, of course, the result of multiple overlapping factors.

The stock price performance of the first wave of crypto IPOs in 2025 has heightened market caution regarding the 2026 listing window.

Since the beginning of the year, Circle's stock price has fallen from a high of $300 to below $50, and Bullish has dropped from $118 to below $25. Even BitGo, the first crypto IPO at the start of 2026, was not spared: after listing at $18 in January and experiencing a brief rebound, it subsequently plummeted to a low of around $7.

This performance over the past year collectively confirms that while crypto-concept stocks can easily attract capital near the peak of a bull market, they struggle to withstand valuation resets during cyclical downturns, and traditional institutional investors' risk premium requirements for "cycle-betting" have significantly increased.

In stark contrast to the "cooling-off period" for crypto IPOs, the AI sector in 2026 is experiencing a dual peak of IPOs and fundraising.

SpaceX has initiated IPO preparations, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, making it one of the most anticipated tech listing projects globally.

OpenAI, valued at nearly $1 trillion, is in close communication with multiple investment banks regarding its listing path; Anthropic, with a valuation approaching $900 billion, is also actively preparing IPO materials. Leveraging the definitive narrative of a "productivity revolution," the AI story has attracted massive long-term capital inflows. Even amidst macro uncertainty, AI-related IPOs can command a far higher risk appetite than crypto assets.

In comparison, crypto companies are highly dependent on Bitcoin prices and trading volumes, with more volatile revenues, making it difficult to offer the "exponential growth" certainty promised by AI companies. This cross-sector divergence in sentiment further amplifies investor caution towards crypto IPOs and forces crypto enterprises to accelerate their transformation from "storytelling" to "demonstrating cash flow and compliance."

Furthermore, crypto companies' strategies are turning more pragmatic: although smaller in scale, private fundraising can still provide a buffer; some companies choose to first optimize product lines and expand stablecoin or institutional services, waiting to list until Bitcoin stabilizes in a higher range and market conditions improve.

The impact of this phenomenon on the industry is worth pondering.

On one hand, it accelerates the survival of the fittest. Weaker projects face greater difficulty in fundraising, while resources concentrate on companies with strong compliance and solid infrastructure, such as Ledger's institutional-grade platform and Kraken's custody business. On the other hand, it highlights the crypto industry's transition from story-driven to performance-driven. Companies that truly navigate the cycle are building long-term trust by constructing anti-volatile cash flows and enhancing transparency. However, in the short term, the narrowing IPO window may lead to valuation resets and impact confidence and liquidity across the entire ecosystem.

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin returns to $90,000 or higher and regulatory bills are further enacted, the second half of 2026 could usher in a second wave of IPO windows.