段永平抄底被套？oreWeave单日跌11%，千亿订单难掩1%利润率困境

Source article by: TechFlow

On May 8, AI cloud computing provider CoreWeave (CRWV) plummeted 11.4% in a single day, closing at $114.15. This marks another "earnings day decline" for the company since its IPO in March last year. However, unlike previous instances, this drop was compounded by a striking contrast: Duan Yongping, widely known in Chinese investment circles as a disciple of Warren Buffett, had just established his first position in CoreWeave in Q4 2025, investing approximately $20 million. Based on the position size and the average price in Q4, the entry point was near CoreWeave's lowest trading range of 2025 in December.

CoreWeave is one of the most debated AI assets in the US stock market right now. On one side, there is a narrative of nearly $100 billion in order backlog and deep integration with Nvidia as a "picks and shovels" provider. On the other side, there is the financial reality of expanding losses despite scaling up, coupled with continuous insider selling. The Q1 earnings report acts like a prism, sharply refracting this division.

Q1 Earnings: Revenue Doubles but Losses Widen; Q2 Guidance Punctures Valuation

CoreWeave's Q1 revenue was $2.08 billion, up 112% year-over-year and 32% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the LSEG market consensus of $1.97 billion. However, adjusted earnings per share were a loss of $1.12, worse than the expected loss of $0.90. Net loss widened to $740 million, more than doubling from $315 million in the same period last year.

The real trigger for the sell-off was the forward guidance. The company provided a Q2 revenue range of $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion, with a midpoint of $2.53 billion, well below the market expectation of $2.69 billion. Simultaneously, the full-year 2026 capital expenditure floor was raised from $30 billion to $31 billion, which CFO Nitin Agrawal attributed to rising component costs.

The fragility of the profit structure was laid bare. Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached $1.16 billion (a 56% margin), which looks impressive on the surface. However, adjusted operating profit was a mere $21 million, compressing the operating margin to 1%. This is because technology and infrastructure costs surged 127% year-over-year to $1.27 billion, while sales and marketing expenses skyrocketed over 6x to $69 million. Revenue is growing, but costs are growing even faster.

During the earnings call, CEO Michael Intrator emphasized, "We have reached hyperscale." He disclosed that the company now has 10 customers committed to spending over $1 billion, significantly reducing the concentration risk compared to 2024 when a single customer, Microsoft, accounted for 62% of revenue. Intrator also projected that CoreWeave's annualized revenue should exceed $30 billion by the end of 2027.

Bull Narrative: $100 Billion Order Backlog, Deeply Tied to Nvidia

The core of the bull case centers on the order backlog. As of the end of Q1, CoreWeave's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) stood at $99.4 billion, a net increase of approximately $33 billion quarter-over-quarter and nearly a 4x increase year-over-year. Intrator stated that over $40 billion in new contracts were signed in Q1 alone.

The client list is also reshaping market perception. In Q1, CoreWeave added Anthropic as a customer to provide computing power for its Claude model series. It signed a $2.1 billion AI cloud agreement with Meta. Trading firm Jane Street committed to approximately $6 billion in orders and separately completed a $1 billion equity investment. Nvidia itself purchased another $2 billion of CoreWeave's Class A common stock this quarter. This triple identity—being the world's largest GPU supplier, an investor, and a key customer—has led CoreWeave to be called Nvidia's "golden child."

In terms of financing structure, CoreWeave completed an $8.5 billion investment-grade HPC (High-Performance Computing) secured delayed draw term loan (DDTL) in Q1, priced below 6%, which management called a "first-of-its-kind." Year-to-date, the company has secured over $20 billion in debt and equity financing, with its weighted average cost of debt declining by approximately 80 basis points. Concurrently, S&P Global Ratings revised its credit rating outlook for CoreWeave from "stable" to "positive."

Bear Narrative: The Bigger It Gets, the Less It Earns; Debt Snowball Grows

However, another set of numbers in the earnings report is fueling anxiety. Q1 capital expenditure reached $6.8 billion, and the company expects Q2 CapEx to climb further to between $7 billion and $9 billion. The Q2 interest expense guidance range is $650 million to $730 million, reflecting the rapid expansion of the debt base.

Total debt has already reached a staggering level. As of the end of Q1, CoreWeave's total debt stood at approximately $25 billion. Relative to the company's current annualized revenue run rate, this leverage level is significantly higher than that of traditional cloud service providers. According to Morgan Stanley data, CoreWeave's full-year 2025 debt financing scale was approximately $11.8 billion, far exceeding its equity financing of about $1.5 billion. The company's core expansion tool is the DDTL, a "sign contract first, finance later" model where GPU purchases are funded by bank loans secured against order contracts.

The sharpest criticism concerns profit quality. Despite management repeatedly emphasizing the 56% EBITDA margin, the adjusted operating margin is only 1%. After deducting technology and infrastructure costs, the "true" gross margin hovers around 4%, showing compression both quarter-over-quarter and against market expectations. On the call, Intrator attributed this to the transient effects of scaling, explaining that when a company rapidly expands from a 1-gigawatt operational scale, new capacity significantly dilutes margins. He promised this represents a "margin trough" that will recover in coming quarters.

However, the market is currently unwilling to pay for this promise. While analysts from Morgan Stanley and Jefferies gave positive assessments, CoreWeave has historically seen short-term pullbacks after every earnings report. This decline is one of the more significant post-earnings drops.

Persistent Insider Selling Mirrors Duan Yongping's Bottom-Fishing

Around the earnings release, selling by CoreWeave insiders continued. CEO Mike Intrator sold 307,693 shares in late April. Co-founders Brian Venturo and Chen Goldberg also recorded sales. Institutional shareholder Magnetar Financial had previously sold over $300 million worth of shares. A recent filing showed one major shareholder sold approximately 1.2 million shares again recently.

This stands in stark contrast to Duan Yongping's Q4 position building. According to a 13F filing disclosed by H&H International Investment in February 2026, Duan Yongping established a first-time position of 299,900 shares in CoreWeave during Q4 2025. At that time, the stock price had retreated over 65% from its highs, and market concerns about its debt structure were at their peak.

Notably, CoreWeave represents only 0.12% of Duan Yongping's total H&H portfolio, a "light dip-the-toe" position. During the same period, he significantly increased his Nvidia stake by over 1110% and established new positions in Credo Technology (high-speed interconnect) and Tempus AI (AI healthcare). These three new AI positions together account for less than 0.3% of the portfolio. This suggests Duan Yongping's real bet is Nvidia itself, with CoreWeave being more of a small exploratory extension downstream in the AI computing chain.

The Key Question Now: Inflection Point or Trap?

In the Q&A session of the earnings call, Intrator made a somewhat emotional retort: "I've always felt that everyone is staring at the stock price tree and missing the entire forest."

This statement aptly summarizes the current bull-bear standoff. The forest that bulls see is nearly $100 billion in contract backlog, a diversifying customer base, Nvidia's triple bond, and a credit rating upgrade. The tree that bears see is a 1% operating margin, widening net losses, aggressive capital expenditure, and relentless insider selling.

CoreWeave's stock price is still up nearly 80% year-to-date and has gained over 200% since its IPO. But when a stock's bull case relies on a forward-looking narrative while the bear case relies on current numbers, every earnings report becomes an arena for these two narratives to clash. In a previous interview with Fang Sanwen, Duan Yongping stated: "AI is a massive revolution driven by a qualitative change in computing power, with an impact that may surpass the internet or the industrial revolution. The AI bubble is evident now, and 90% of companies might be eliminated, but the survivors will become the next generation of giants." His 0.12% light position itself acknowledges the uncertainty of this bet.

The next test point is clear: the Q2 earnings report. If the operating margin fails to recover as management has promised, the credibility of the "forest" narrative will face a real stress test.