特朗普一条推文，BTC时隔3个月重返8万美元

Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)

Wild Monday! After three months, Bitcoin has once again breached the $80,000 mark.

The altcoin market is also showing signs of recovery. According to Quantify Crypto data, over the past 24 hours, more than 80% of the top 200 altcoins by market cap have experienced varying degrees of increase. Among them, DOGE rose over 5.43%, ZEC surged over 10.78%, and WLFI climbed over 7.06%.

In terms of derivatives, Coinglass data shows that total liquidations across the network reached $286 million in the past 12 hours, with short positions accounting for the majority at $251 million. The liquidations were concentrated around the time Bitcoin broke through $80,000. Additionally, BTC saw $152 million in liquidations, while ETH saw $75.5 million.

This rally wasn't exclusive to the crypto market. Asian stock markets opened sharply higher on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1.9%, erasing its losses since the Iran war. Tech stocks rebounded, with SK Hynix's stock price surging nearly 10%, TSMC jumping over 6%, and Hong Kong-listed tech stocks also collectively climbing. Xiaomi Group rose over 10%, and Alibaba (09988.HK) gained over 6%.

Meanwhile, according to Gate data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices also saw slight declines, with WTI crude oil remaining around $101 per barrel.

When both stock and crypto markets rise on a Monday, accompanied by minor oil price fluctuations, seasoned investors might guess the cause: Trump, the market's orchestrator, has made another move.

Market Anticipates Trump's 'Project Freedom' Could Open the Strait of Hormuz

Late on the evening of May 3rd Eastern Time, Trump posted that he would begin helping ships leave the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday (Middle Eastern time). He stated that many countries unrelated to the current Middle Eastern conflict are seeking US help to release vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. For humanitarian aid, the US will safely guide their ships out of the restricted waters, naming this operation "Project Freedom."

Following Trump's post, the US Central Command also stated it would provide military support for the evacuation of stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 troops, framing this as a response to Iranian military attacks on commercial ships transiting the strait.

Trump's unilateral action naturally angered Iran. As early as May 2nd, Iran's Deputy Parliament Speaker Ali Nikzad, speaking on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasized that Iran would not retreat one step from the strait. He stated that the parliament was approving a "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," which includes provisions for a permanent ban on Israeli vessels passing through this critical waterway, requiring vessels from "hostile nations" to pay "war reparations" for passage permits, and mandating that other ships obtain Iranian authorization for transit.

Consequently, Iran views Trump's "Project Freedom" as a US infringement on Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after Trump's announcement, Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that any US intervention in the new maritime order of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

On April 8th, the US and Iran signed a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement. As the temporary ceasefire was about to expire on April 21st, Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire to continue negotiations with Iran. Although the ceasefire is in place, Iran has retained control over the Strait of Hormuz during this period and has not fully reopened it for passage.

In terms of consequences, if Trump enforces "Project Freedom," the current situation between the US and Iran could escalate from negotiations back to armed conflict. Not only would the Strait of Hormuz remain inaccessible, but in the long run, war would deal a far greater blow to global financial markets than today's rally.

Of course, it remains uncertain whether "the blusterer-in-chief" Trump will actually execute the "Project Freedom" plan. It's currently Monday morning (May 4th) Middle Eastern time, but there is no news yet of US forces successfully escorting merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Could this be another classic T.A.C.O. (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade? (Related reading: War Won or Lost? Trump: Made a Profit)

Iran seems accustomed to this Trump-style "cry wolf" narrative. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi, commenting on Trump's earlier posts manipulating oil prices in late March, noted, "Every week when the market opens, Trump makes such statements to drive down oil prices." Similarly, Ebrahim Azizi dismissed Trump's "Project Freedom" announcement, contemptuously stating that no one believes such a "buck-passing" trick.

While we don't yet know if "Project Freedom" will actually be implemented, Trump's eagerness to restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz is evident. This is not only tied to US national interests but also crucial for Trump to secure his presidential position.

On May 3rd, according to the latest ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Trump's disapproval rating reached 62%, the highest of his two terms. With midterm elections approaching, such approval ratings are dire for Trump, making him urgently need a game-changing achievement. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the ideal goal (even if the current problems are largely of his own making).

Externally, opening the Strait of Hormuz would reassert US global deterrence. Trump could package it as a complete victory over Iran, showcasing American strength. Internally, restoring passage through the Strait would lower global oil prices, placating domestic discontent from the public and related stakeholders. Furthermore, lower price levels could increase the chances of newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh convincing other officials to agree on a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, injecting vitality into the market. (Related reading: Powell Bows Out but Doesn't Leave Stage; Trump's Rate Cut Hopes May Be Dashed)

On the morning of May 4th, Trump also posted a photo on Truth Social showing himself holding multiple cards, captioned "I have all the cards." On the surface, this exudes confidence, but often, those with the weakest hands are the ones who bluff the most.