Original Author: Ada, Deep Tide TechFlow

On May 5, according to The Information, Anthropic committed to paying Google Cloud $200 billion over the next five years.

This multi-year agreement, starting in 2027, will account for over 40% of Google Cloud's revenue backlog, a metric reflecting enterprise customer contract commitments.

An AI company that didn't even exist five years ago, with just one contract, has consumed nearly half of Google Cloud's future revenue.

On the day the news broke, Alphabet's stock rose 2% in after-hours trading.

But another number is even more intriguing. Alphabet simultaneously made a reverse investment of up to $40 billion in Anthropic.

Money leaves Google's books, takes a spin, and returns to Google's books. The only difference is a new accounting line item: "Anthropic computing expenditure."

So, is this the largest cloud computing order in history, or the most elegant financial magic trick ever performed?

A "Exclusive Commitment" Not Just For Google

To understand the essence of this deal, consider a set of data points that are not isolated.

On April 20, Anthropic announced an expanded partnership with Amazon, committing to spend over $100 billion on AWS technology over the next 10 years in exchange for up to 5 gigawatts of computing power. In return, Amazon added up to $25 billion on top of its existing $8 billion investment.

Last November, Microsoft agreed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, with Anthropic committing to purchase $30 billion in Azure computing power.

In summary: Google invests $40 billion, receives $200 billion. Amazon invests ~$33 billion, receives $100 billion+. Microsoft invests $5 billion, receives $30 billion.

The three cloud giants collectively shelled out about $78 billion, securing $330 billion in "contractual commitments," resulting in a net book inflow of $250 billion.

The essence of this strategy is to transform capital expenditure into revenue. The investment in Anthropic goes into investing cash flow, while the computing fees paid by Anthropic count as main operating revenue. The same money goes out of the left pocket and into the right, creating a beautiful backlog on the financial statements.

Alphabet, on one hand, pumps capital into Anthropic, and on the other, books Anthropic's computing procurement as future revenue. Thus, the AI infrastructure boom presents a self-reinforcing closed loop.

Wall Street is the true winner in this game. As long as the backlog number is large enough, the P/E ratio can be sustained.

The Premium Version of the Flywheel

Before the story of Strategy doubling down was even finished, the AI circle amplified the same flywheel a thousand times over.

Strategy's logic was: issue stock to raise money, buy Bitcoin, Bitcoin price rises boosting market cap, issue more stock, buy more Bitcoin.

The cloud providers' logic is: invest in AI companies, AI companies pay for computing power, revenue grows, stock price rises, capital markets place more bets, continue investing in AI companies.

The difference is, Bitcoin is a scarce asset. Every coin corresponds to a real supply on the chain. Computing power is not. The "multi-gigawatt TPU capacity" slated for 2027 doesn't even have its racks installed today.

This means a significant portion of the $200 billion represents a pre-commitment by Anthropic to purchase chips that haven't been manufactured yet. Google then uses this commitment to convince the capital markets.

Isn't this just a futures contract? The difference is that commodity futures have delivery dates and margin requirements, but this contract does not. What happens if Anthropic can't pay this amount in 2027? Who bears the default cost?

It won't be Google. It has already written the backlog into its earnings call presentation. During Alphabet's earnings call on April 29, it disclosed that Google Cloud revenue grew 63% year-over-year, exceeding $20 billion, and cloud business backlog reached approximately $462 billion. This number supports Alphabet's current market cap.

It also won't be Anthropic. It can just continue raising funds. The valuation in the next round is still rising.

The one ultimately footing the bill might be the retail investors who thought they were buying the "AI picks and shovels" story.

$5 Billion Leveraging $330 Billion

Does Anthropic's own scale justify this number?

According to media reports, Anthropic's annualized revenue grew from $1 billion to $5 billion in 2025.

A company with an annualized revenue of only $5 billion signs contracts worth $200 billion over 5 years, $100 billion over 10 years, plus another $30 billion. Combined, these three contracts total $330 billion.

Even if Anthropic's revenue were to increase tenfold, cumulative earnings over five years wouldn't come close to $330 billion.

So, where will the money come from?

There is only one path: continue fundraising.

And the biggest potential investors happen to be these three cloud providers themselves.

This is the whole secret of the cycle. Anthropic doesn't actually need to be profitable; it only needs to maintain its status of "always being in a fundraising round," using each new round of funds as next year's computing bill. As its fundraising valuation goes up, it can raise even more.

Who does this sound like?

Strategy. It doesn't need Bitcoin to generate actual cash flow either; it just needs to maintain the state of being able to "always issue stock and bonds." The only difference is that Strategy's balance sheet still holds Bitcoin, an asset with a globally publicly quoted price.

The valuation logic for AI companies has become very similar to that of SaaS companies in 2021. Back then, everyone was competing on ARR; today, the competition is over computing commitments. Essentially, both are using the future to discount the present. The only question is whether the future will materialize."

What is OpenAI Doing?

In the same 8-K filing where Amazon increased its bet on Anthropic, OpenAI also committed to consuming about 2 gigawatts of Trainium computing power via AWS infrastructure, starting to ramp up in 2027.

Two months ago, Amazon invested $50 billion in OpenAI and signed a $100 billion cloud computing contract.

The script is exactly the same.

Meaning, three major cloud providers, two major model companies – five players have played the same game multiple times. Each time carries the headlines of "biggest ever," "strategic partnership," and "computing revolution."

And behind each time, it's the same money circulating.

So, who will stop first?

It won't be the cloud providers. Their current market caps depend on this narrative. Alphabet has raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to up to $190 billion. Spending on this scale must be "hedged" into revenue by Anthropic and OpenAI, or Wall Street would be the first to object.

Nor will it be the model companies. Stopping means failing to secure the next funding round, and thus, death.

The first to be kicked out of the game might be the second-tier players who haven't found their side.

Will the Music Stop?

The vulnerability of it all lies hidden in the word "materialization."

TPUs come online in 2027. If by then, Claude's commercialization hasn't kept pace with the expansion of computing power, how will Anthropic digest this $200 billion?

If a contract gets renegotiated, cancelled, or spread out, Google Cloud's $462 billion backlog table will immediately be exposed.

But today, no one wants to be the first to pop the bubble. CFOs are writing guidance, analysts are issuing buy ratings, CEOs are carefully choosing their words on earnings calls. Everyone is betting that before the music stops, they will be standing closest to a chair.

The issue now is not whether it's a bubble, but how to dismantle the bubble. Everyone knows this is circular trading, but everyone also knows that as long as the AI story continues, no one dares to short the backlog.

The contracts are on paper, money circulates among three companies, and valuations gyrate between primary and secondary markets. Everyone received a "future promise," and everyone treats this promise as a "current asset."

Until one day in the future, a certain company's earnings fail to meet expectations. At that moment, $200 billion will suddenly have another name: contingent liability.

And until that day arrives, the party will continue.