Vanguard เข้าสมทบ 700 ล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ MSTR ถึงจุดต่ำสุดแล้วหรือยัง?

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Ding Dang (@XiaMiPP)

On January 20, MicroStrategy once again disclosed an increase in its holdings, adding 22,305 bitcoins, valued at approximately $2.13 billion. This represents the largest single purchase by MicroStrategy since 2025.

Over the past few months, MicroStrategy's stock price has continued to decline from its high of $457, falling nearly 200%. Doubts surrounding MicroStrategy have also intensified. From high leverage and refinancing capabilities to the transmission mechanism between Bitcoin price volatility and stock price, almost all negative narratives have been revisited. Especially after mNAV fell below 1, voices predicting MSTR's decline have been incessant.

Amidst these doubts, a widely circulated article titled "Federal Reserve vs. Treasury: The Currency War Hidden Behind Bitcoin's Plunge" even likened MicroStrategy to a "Bitcoin central bank," suggesting it is caught in a power struggle between the traditional financial system (the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase) and the emerging system (the Treasury, stablecoins, Bitcoin-collateralized financing). It also accused institutions like JPMorgan Chase of systematically shorting MSTR through methods such as delayed settlements and options market suppression.

Simultaneously, index provider MSCI signaled that it might remove MSTR from its indices. If this happens, it could theoretically trigger passive selling of approximately $8.8 billion. MicroStrategy's own calculations also indicate that, in extreme scenarios, it could trigger stock liquidations of $2.8 billion.

Panic seems to be escalating... At a time when the market is worried about whether MicroStrategy will "sell Bitcoin" or "can it refinance again," MicroStrategy chose to act in the clearest and most powerful way, embodying the label of a steadfast Bitcoin believer.

The Bottom is Not a Price, But a Moment When a Certain Behavior Begins to Appear

In an article published by Odaily on December 3 titled "$1.44 Billion Dividend Reserve Fund Established, Yet Stock Price Plunges 10%: What is MicroStrategy's Real Problem?", it was pointed out: MicroStrategy's highly concentrated asset structure, reliance on capital market refinancing, and valuation model deeply tied to Bitcoin's price are its inherent genetic makeup. Precisely because of this, when market trends reverse, these structural characteristics do not "suddenly fail"; instead, they amplify volatility in a more dramatic manner. Rapid price declines, in turn, reinforce pessimistic narratives, causing risks to be magnified and repeatedly discussed at the emotional level.

Therefore, when almost everyone is extremely bearish and the news is full of negative reports, it often means that bad news may be being digested, or has already been digested. This is also why Warren Buffett's saying, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful," is repeatedly quoted.

Thus, what is truly worth observing in the market is not whether these bearish factors are valid, but whether, at the most extreme point of sentiment and while bad news still exists, there are already "lone brave souls" in the market choosing to go long on MSTR?

The answer is: Yes, and there is more than one type.

Vanguard: Institutional Funds Begin to Intervene

Vanguard is one of the world's largest asset management companies, with assets under management exceeding $12 trillion. Since the beginning of 2026, two of its index funds have successively disclosed purchases of MSTR, with a combined increase of approximately $707.5 million.

It is important to emphasize that this is not an active expression of a bullish stance, as most of Vanguard's assets are automatically adjusted based on changes in index constituents. In other words, the current buying may stem from passive index tracking requirements.

On January 20, the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VVIAX) disclosed its first purchase of MSTR stock, totaling 1.23 million shares valued at approximately $202.5 million. This is a value-oriented index fund focused on large-cap stocks undervalued by the market, with core screening criteria including low price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and high dividend yields, among other value characteristics.

A similar situation occurred with another mid-cap index fund, the Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VMCIX). The fund disclosed its purchase of 2.91 million shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $505 million. The continuous growth of MSTR's market capitalization made it eligible for inclusion in the mid-cap index, forcing the fund to increase its holdings to match the index weight.

Overall, Vanguard's two purchases are likely mostly due to tracking behavior by index funds rather than active investment. However, it is precisely within this flow of "opinion-less" capital that a key change is occurring: MSTR is being institutionally incorporated into the traditional asset allocation system, becoming a compliant vehicle for Bitcoin risk exposure.

Pension Funds' Exploration: The Signal Behind Small Positions

In the more conservative realm of pension funds, the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) disclosed on December 31, 2025, that it held 17,900 shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $3.1 million, accounting for 0.02% of its roughly $16 billion in assets.

This is not an aggressive allocation; in fact, the position is extremely small.

However, LASERS is the retirement system for public employees in Louisiana, managing retirement assets for over 100,000 state employees (including teachers and other public workers), with a total size of approximately $15.6 billion. The fund's portfolio is primarily concentrated in large U.S. tech stocks such as NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. Within such a portfolio, the appearance of MSTR could be interpreted as: Indirectly gaining Bitcoin exposure through a listed company structure is being considered by some state-level public funds as a discussable and explorable option. Although LASERS's current holding of MSTR is small, it represents cautious and preliminary interest in crypto assets.

When Actively Managed Funds Choose to Stand on the Other Side

Unlike passive index funds, the choices of actively managed funds are closer to direct judgments of risk and reward.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, globally renowned quantitative trading and market-making firm Jane Street Group disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 51.72%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 11.0588 million to 16.7784 million. It also held a large-scale call options position simultaneously.

In the same quarter, Capital International Investors disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 713.07%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 1.5589 million to 12.6749 million.

Furthermore, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his core trading strategy for this quarter was to go long on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, using them as high-leverage tools to bet on Bitcoin trends.

Several asset management firms, including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and The Benchmark Company, still maintain a Buy rating on MSTR. For example, TD Cowen stated that despite short-term yield pressure, as Bitcoin prices recover, related metrics for the fiscal year 2027 are expected to improve.

Finally

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten proposed a noteworthy observation perspective: In this cycle, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has absorbed about 75% of the drawdown, thereby allowing Bitcoin itself to avoid experiencing a decline of the same magnitude, as volatility shifted from spot Bitcoin to MSTR common stock.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor's large-scale stock issuance when mNAV was around 1x essentially acted as the ultimate risk absorber. At this valuation level, incoming risks were transferred to investors willing to buy MSTR at that price point, rather than continuing to pressure the spot Bitcoin market, thus somewhat inhibiting the formation of a bear market.

The significance of this perspective lies in redefining the relationship between MSTR and Bitcoin. MSTR is no longer just a high-leverage reflection of Bitcoin; in the current market structure, it is gradually evolving into an intermediary layer that bears, transmits, and releases Bitcoin's volatility. Due to its stock having higher liquidity, mature short-selling mechanisms, and rich options instruments, when market risk appetite declines, investors may tend to express their risk assessment of Bitcoin by selling or hedging MSTR, rather than directly selling spot Bitcoin.

Of course, these institutions and individuals choosing to go long on MSTR may not necessarily be correct. But their very existence is worth serious observation. Because the structural bottom of the market is often not born after sentiment improves, but at the moment when sentiment remains extreme, yet some have already chosen to act contrarily.

And observing investor behavior regarding MSTR at this stage is essentially observing how they view Bitcoin's risk, expectations, and cyclical position.