Fidelity Research Vice President: Bear Market May Not Be Over Yet, BTC Still Awaits November Cycle Test

Odaily News: Recently, Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, stated: "The bear market may not be over yet." He believes that the rebound since August could either be the starting point of a new upward trend or merely a bounce within a bear market. "Rising prices do not guarantee the end of a bear market." Based on the four-year cycle, November is a key window to watch (the bottom of the previous bear market was in November 2022), but he also emphasized that historical cycles never repeat precisely, and BTC could decline again and set a new low in November or later.

A more positive signal is that from June to mid-August, digital asset volatility was at a low level before rapidly expanding, a pattern similar to the late stages of previous bear markets. This may mean that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, while stablecoin transfers, RWA, and institutional participation continued to grow during the same period.