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```html Bitcoin cycle drawdowns are narrowing, and gains from cycle lows are simultaneously declining

2026-09-05 06:42

Odaily News: Over the past 18 years, the Bitcoin market has repeatedly seen the "this time is different" narrative, but the structure of each cycle has largely continued. In 2014, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2024-2025, BTC's maximum drawdowns were approximately 85%, 84%, 77%, and 53%, respectively, with the drawdown magnitude gradually narrowing.

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, published a chart stating that this cycle's BTC drawdown is significantly smaller than previous cycles. Analyst Willy Woo stated that as the impact of the halving supply shock diminishes, Bitcoin may be transitioning from a four-year cycle to a six-to-eight-year cycle, but this assessment currently cannot be confirmed.

Previously, the gains from cycle lows to the next all-time highs were approximately 580x, 130x, 22x, and 8x, respectively. Analyst James Check pointed out that Bitcoin's price bottom rises each cycle, while the top remains relatively stable; Jesse Myers stated that BTC may have just entered a two-to-three-year bull market. (Bitcoin.com News)



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