Over $120 million in bets placed on Bitcoin's 2026 price, with 68% probability of hitting $70,000

Odaily News: Bitcoin was trading near $63,500 around 1:30 PM ET on August 12, 2026. Across six active markets on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, cumulative bets exceeded $120 million, with traders wagering on Bitcoin's future price movements.

Polymarket's largest Bitcoin price market has a trading volume of approximately $52.1 million, showing a 68% probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 by the end of 2026 and a 79% probability of hitting $60,000. The market also assigns probabilities of 51%, 32%, and 17% for reaching $75,000, $80,000, and $90,000, respectively.

Polymarket's market for August 2026 has a trading volume of nearly $5 million, with probabilities of 70% and 81% for Bitcoin reaching $65,000 and falling to $62,500 that month, respectively; probabilities for reaching $67,500, $70,000, and $75,000 are 38%, 17%, and 3%. Polymarket also indicates a 9% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within 2026.

Kalshi data shows a 12% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by January 2027, with 3% probabilities for both $150,000 and $200,000. Polymarket uses Binance's BTC/USDT one-minute price candles, while Kalshi relies on the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin real-time index, with differing settlement rules. (Bitcoin.com News)