Polymarket launches "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire"

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market on "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 is 5%; for July 24 is 15%; for July 31 is 23%; for August 14 is 43%; and for August 31 is 54%.

The settlement rules for this event are: If the US takes no military action against Iran from the market's creation until 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will settle as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will settle as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action within this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."

The so-called "qualifying military action" refers to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated directly by the US against Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial-launched drones. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones, as well as surface-to-surface missiles like cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.

Qualifying military actions include ordnance destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, cannons, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threat, authorization, or declaration of force that has not yet been carried out.

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