中金：Maintains baseline expectation of no rate hike this year, but the threshold for a rate hike has already lowered

Odaily reported that a research report from CICC states that the U.S. CPI for June fell by 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the year-on-year increase dropping to 3.5%; core CPI recorded zero growth month-on-month, rising 2.6% year-on-year, both figures coming in below market expectations. The decline in energy prices is the main reason for the cooling inflation. Looking ahead, the situation between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again, leading to potential volatility in energy inflation prospects. At the same time, the AI inflation effect is gradually emerging, with upstream hardware supply-demand mismatches, price increases for software and related products, and AI capital expenditures driving aggregate demand, all of which could make core inflation more sticky.

As for policy, the cooling inflation in June supports the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate at the July meeting. However, recent statements by Waller indicate that the Fed is reassessing the possibility of a "preventive rate hike." We maintain our baseline expectation of no rate hike this year but suggest that the threshold for a rate hike has already lowered. Should one or two overheated inflation data points appear, it could prompt the Fed to further discuss rate hike options. (Jin Shi)