韩股暴跌重演亚洲金融危机？分析机构称韩国当前金融风险与1996年亚洲金融危机结构性相似

According to Odaily, following the recent sharp decline in the South Korean stock market, the domestic independent global macro research firm Tantao Macro previously stated that there are structural similarities between South Korea’s current financial risks and those before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC): semiconductor exports account for 41% of total exports (compared to 16% in 1996), foreign ownership of domestic stocks has hit a record high of 40%, and the external debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 39.6%. However, key differences include: 1) The reserve adequacy ratio (ARA) stands at 92% (compared to just 54% before the AFC), and the proportion of short-term external debt has fallen to 9.4% (compared to 11.5% before the AFC); 2) A freely floating exchange rate has replaced the soft peg, reducing the risk of a run; 3) Corporate leverage growth has slowed, and the bank non-performing loan ratio is lower than during the AFC period.

Currently, risks are mainly concentrated in the stock market: the KOSPI's price-to-book ratio of 2x and price-to-earnings ratio of 30x are both at record highs, while margin balances have doubled over the past year and a half to 38.6 trillion Korean won. The financial stability index indicates that overall risk is at the 62nd percentile historically (yellow zone), with the valuation dimension reaching the 91st percentile.

Model projections estimate a 5% probability of negative growth in South Korea over the next year, but the risk of a vicious cycle is significantly lower than during the AFC, primarily due to a stronger foreign reserve buffer and increased exchange rate flexibility. Recessions of this magnitude have only occurred three times in the past three decades. Key warning: If the semiconductor cycle reverses or Fed tightening triggers foreign capital outflows, the stock market could become a transmission hub for risks.