Analysts Lower SK Hynix Q2 Earnings Forecast, but Expect Long-Term Profit Growth to Sustain

Odaily Planet Daily News: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X, stating that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae forecasts SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion KRW, a 61% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 556% increase year-over-year, which is 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion KRW.

The analyst stated that the downward revision is mainly due to SK Hynix's higher HBM sales proportion compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and the stabilization of ASP (Average Selling Price) due to long-term supply agreements (LTA). The Q2 2026 DRAM composite ASP growth forecast has been lowered to 28.9% quarter-over-quarter, down from the previous 50.0%; commodity DRAM ASP growth has been revised down to 34.2%, down from the previous 60.6%. As HBM4 mass production officially begins in the third quarter of 2026, the composite ASP growth rate is expected to return to an average quarterly market pace of approximately 10%.

However, the analyst believes this adjustment is not a sign of an industry downturn. The recent forecast revision more realistically reflects the structure of 3-to-5-year LTAs, which is expected to lead to more stable long-term profit growth. Year-over-year operating profit growth rates for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 are projected at 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.