Analyst: Bitcoin May Enter Bottom Zone, 200-Week Moving Average Becomes Key Macro Divergence Point
Odaily Planet Daily reported that analyst Ai pointed out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been consistently regarded as a core indicator for identifying "cycle bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by the start of a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:
August 2015: After touching the 200-week moving average, a bull market began, with cumulative gains exceeding 8500%.
December 2018: After testing this moving average, a rebound of approximately 267% occurred.
March 2020: Following a liquidity-driven panic bottom due to the pandemic, support was confirmed, leading to a subsequent rally of 1125%.
June 2022: The price fell below the moving average for the first time and remained below it for an extended period, only reclaiming it in December, which triggered an upward move of about 680%.
In the current market, the 200-week moving average sits at approximately $63,500, while Bitcoin is currently trading below the $60,000 mark. Analysts believe this has entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.
At the same time, analysts also caution that potential downside risks still exist. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme scenarios, a test of the $40,000 range cannot be ruled out. However, the overall environment is more suitable for gradually building positions using a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy.
Regarding key observation points, $63,500 is considered the "bull-bear divergence line." If Bitcoin can firmly reclaim and confirm the 200-week moving average as macro support on higher timeframes, historical patterns suggest it could signal the early stage of a new bull market has already begun.
