Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: PCE Data to Become Fed Policy Barometer, Watch for Gold Downside Risk

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out during an online live stream with the theme "Logic of Gold Trend Decomposition" that the market focus this week will be on the US May PCE price index and the final Q1 GDP figures. Following the record highs in CPI and PPI data and solid non-farm payroll performance, coupled with signals of rebounding inflation and the Fed's hawkish stance, the market has gradually priced in interest rate hike expectations. He emphasized that Warsh has clearly stated that curbing inflation is the primary task, and the interest rate dot plot indicates that rate hikes in 2026 are becoming an internal consensus, requiring the market to prepare for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

Regarding the gold trend, Lewis Huang stated that due to geopolitical conflicts pushing up energy prices, the year-on-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) could climb to 3.4% or even higher. If the PCE data exceeds expectations, the US Dollar Index will gain strong momentum, while non-yielding assets like gold will face weakening risks. It is recommended that CFD traders closely monitor inflation expectation gaps, flexibly capturing opportunities for a long dollar position or guarding against gold downside risks.