Bitcoin falls below $65,000: Fed meeting approaches, coupled with structural concerns over Strategy and leverage risk

Under the combined pressure of macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional investor caution, Bitcoin continues to weaken, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% on the day. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the first to be chaired by Kevin Warsh, with widespread expectations that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.

Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the policy path and inflation signals." Current inflation in the U.S. is believed to remain near three-year highs, with energy prices and geopolitical developments keeping the market cautious about the future policy direction.

Pressure is also mounting at the on-chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to fester. On June 16, its preferred stock STRC fell to $91.79, more than 8% below its $100 par value, which is seen as a sign of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying activity.

Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority, the capital inflow remains significantly lower than in previous phases, indicating limited buying momentum.

Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP note that Bitcoin's recent rebound is more of a "technical repair driven by selling pressure exhaustion" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest that traders are pricing in tail risks.

In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is believed to be oscillating in the short term within the $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed sends a hawkish signal or institutional buying weakens further, a pullback to the $62,000–$63,000 range is possible.

Overall, the current market presents a combination structure of "macro uncertainty awaiting clarity + marginal institutional weakening + enhanced derivative market defenses." The short-term direction remains dependent on the FOMC policy signals and the resumption of capital inflows from ETFs and corporate entities. (The Block)