Analyst: Bitcoin Has Recorded Net Losses for 22 Consecutive Days, Valuations Enter Historically Low Zone

Odaily Odaily reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has corrected approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been absorbed, and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term capital accumulation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, with the market continuously completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator touched a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme level of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market.

Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that a large number of holders are currently selling Bitcoin at prices below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, meaning the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone or presented a historically significant value trough.

He believes that, looking at the two indicators together, while market sentiment is weak, valuations have clearly cooled. Going forward, key points to watch are whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or if realized losses approach the extreme levels of 2022 again, it could signal the arrival of a deeper phase of market capitulation.