美联储古尔斯比：AI生产率预期升温叠加油价上涨，或迫使各央行加息

Odaily Planet Daily News: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday reinforced his warning that rising expectations about AI's potential to boost productivity could fuel inflation and force the Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates. "The more hype there is about future productivity, the higher interest rates may need to go to keep the economy from overheating," Goolsbee said. "More importantly, short-term supply shocks — whether it's oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors — can make the problem even worse." These remarks further expand on the view Goolsbee first publicly presented earlier this month. At that time, he questioned the idea — embraced by many Trump administration officials and new Fed Chair John Williams — that AI would have an inflation-suppressing effect, thereby creating room for the central bank to cut rates. In the 1990s, the widespread adoption of computers led to an unexpected surge in U.S. productivity, driving strong economic growth without igniting inflation. However, Goolsbee argues that it would be different if productivity growth is what the market already expects. Markets could trigger a spending spree in advance, pushing prices higher before actual productivity gains materialize. (Jin Shi)