灰度研究主管：美联储“高利率长期化”将给比特币带来短期压力

Grayscale Research Director: Fed's "Higher for Longer" Rate Policy Poses Short-Term Headwinds for Bitcoin

Odaily News: Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that with accelerating U.S. inflation and a significant rise in energy prices, the incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will likely be compelled to keep interest rates elevated. The market widely anticipates that the Fed will not cut rates before September 2027. This "higher for longer" policy has three major implications for crypto assets:

1. "Debasement Trade" Under Pressure: The holding cost of non-yielding assets like bitcoin increases, as high real interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield alternatives, creating short-term headwinds for assets like bitcoin. However, Pandl remains optimistic about bitcoin's outlook, expecting positive regulatory developments, including the CLARITY Act, to partially offset these adverse effects.

2. Accelerated On-Chain Fixed Income: Dollar-denominated fixed-income products generally offer higher yields than comparable DeFi products. If crypto investors can achieve higher returns on tokenized bonds, issuers may be incentivized to bring more assets on-chain, accelerating the digitization of fixed income.

3. Revenue Growth for Stablecoin Issuers: Stablecoin issuers like Circle hold interest-bearing assets but cannot pay interest on their tokens. Rising interest rates directly boost their revenues. Pandl estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue could increase by approximately $190 million.

Zach Pandl concludes that a "higher for longer" rate environment will create headwinds for debasement trades while simultaneously driving the tokenization of fixed-income assets and benefiting stablecoin issuer revenues.