Polymarket probability of "0 times of 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026" rises to 58%, up 9% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "0 times of 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026" has risen to 58%, up 9% in the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the "How many 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026?" prediction event has approached $22 million.

The contract rules for this event are: Settlement is based on the actual number of 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 (including any cuts at the December meeting). If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points after a single meeting, it will be counted as two cuts (each of 25 basis points). Emergency rate cuts outside of regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings will also be counted toward the total number of cuts in 2026. The market will remain open until 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. If the specified number of rate cuts cannot be achieved, the market will be settled early as "No."

Today, following the release of U.S. economic data, U.S. interest rate futures data shows a slight increase in market expectations for the probability of a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.